Update

Trump is definitely plotting something, and with Biden's inauguration coming up he'll have to act soon. It's just a question of when and how.

I say this mostly because reports of who is meeting with him indicate he's meeting with people who will tell him what he wants to hear and encourage his worst tendencies.

Also, there's an independent journalist I used to follow in Iraq, I saw him on Twitter and checked in, but he's gone full bore on the 'ChiCom' BS. It's a damn shame, but so much is these days.

Anyways, apparently he was meeting this morning with Bannon, and I'm fairly sure it wasn't to discuss what to do after Biden takes over.

This Twitter thread was interesting, mostly because it highlights how challenging the political environment is.

Someone on the right was talking about 'red lines' that would convince a lot of people that they need to take up arms against our government. Arresting Trump was one (which is extremely frustrating since I think he needs to be held responsible), as was going after guns.

This isn't to say we need to respect those red lines as a) a lot of other people would be very unhappy if we let fear dictate our response - see all the comments about not negotiating with terrorists and b) if something needs to be done, it needs to be done. Figure out how to do it with the least negative consequences, but don't dither or ignore the issue and hope it goes away.

It means Biden has to really thread the needle, on top of dealing with the pandemic and economic problems caused thereby.

In thinking about it myself, I realized that I'm really lacking in information. Oh, there are surveys of how many Republicans believe Trump's (non-stop) lies, but there's a couple of problems with using that info.

First, conservatives disgusted by what the party has become are calling themselves 'Independent', or actively looking for a new political home. My (very rough) heuristic used to be that about a third of Americans (and I'm not sure if this is actual registered votes, or all legal adults) are Republican, and another third Democrat. Hence how they generally balance each other out. The remaining third lean one war or another, or are the somewhat cliché 'socially liberal but fiscally conservative'. (Fair warning, this might all shift as yet another generation grows up and starts flexing their political muscles). Anyways, that remaining third is where the swing vote normally lies. Even if many lean right or lean left, they pick and choose based on the perceived needs of the time.

Updated to say: it's probably more like 40-40-20 considering Trump's approval ratings. But that probably includes the learners, and current events are splitting the right. Now you've got Trumpers and the ones who are still conservative and realize that Trump isn't. And that he's undermining everything they're trying to conserve.

So a survey of 'Republicans' might actually be smaller than the usual third.

The second issue is this. I'm not all that concerned with the people who are disgruntled, but don't plan to do anything illegal about it. Hell, Democrats have people who thought the 2000 election was stolen, and 2016. They didn't threaten to take up arms against the US government because of it. 

So the real question is, if a 'redline' is crossed how many people will that be? (probably less than the red liners hope and more than the government wants, but that's not really very useful for predicting the future).

In that sense, that only around 20-30K came to the 'Stop the Steal' protest last week is encouraging. Also, some of the videos show that many of the people there really were just protesting like we always do.

Now, not everyone can get to DC on the middle of the work week so make of that what you will.

Since we're stuck living through the next week anyway, I'll definitely pay attention to how many get involved with whatever it is that Trump tries to pull. (I'm pretty sure it'll fail, but it could get ugly. The only thing I'd truly be concerned about is if there were signs Trump was inviting the Russians or another nation-state in. It seems highly unlikely, but in the best analyst tradition that's the 'most dangerous course of action')

Whatever happens will give some sense of just how narrow the eye of the needle is.