Sunday, November 24, 2019

Rasputin - Some Musings

I've been reading a history book on Rasputin, which has been interesting for a variety of reasons.

I'd heard about Rasputin before - who hasn't? - but never really looked into the details. I just knew a story of some dark and sinister figure that was eventually murdered in a rather spectacular way. That is, if I recall correctly, that he was stabbed (and/or shot?) and an attempt was made at drowning him, and he only finally died of hypothermia on his way back from that. Or something like that.

So it's interesting to see what a historian can make of the details, their assessment of what is likely fact or fiction, and what it all means.

It also provides some interesting insights into Russian culture/history, though I have no idea how much of it would still be relevant to today. I vaguely recall learning that Russia's relationship with their eastern edges was a bit like our own relationship with our expansion into the American west, and it was interesting to see that Siberia was more than just some freezing cold place for political exiles.

What's weird, to me at least, is that our Western notions of right and wrong are so at odds with some of the values here. Like, I keep wanting to label someone 'good' or 'bad', even though I know it's not realistic, but it still catches me up in odd ways.

Like some of what Rasputin did for the tsar and tsarista seem - positive. Encouraging a weak ruler, building confidence, etc. But, as an American, we've never been to keen on the authority of the crown or any such nonsense, so Rasputin trying to discourage the tsar from bending on certain issues seems short-sighted and foolish to me. Especially given what I know is coming... better to bend a little, then have the revolution they eventually got, and see the murder of the entire Romanov royal family. Right?

And then there are some of Rasputin's opponents. Like - Rasputin himself seems a complex and mysterious figure, hardly a shining example of holiness. (Some of the historical accounts of his relationship with women are downright disturbing). But the people who opposed him seem hardly any better. Spreading malicious lies, making up facts...

And, well, some of his former-friends-turned-enemies were conspiracy theorists that honestly seemed to believe that Elders of Zion bs. Is conspiracy thinking that engrained? They hardly seem like principled (or holy) opposition to a demonic Rasputin, when they seem about as bad as our own neo-Nazis.

These perceptions of Jewish - and foreign - conspiracies just seemed so... widespread. (That's not even touching on the deep strands of mysticism and whatnot that Rasputin tapped into. Iirc, something similar was going on in the West at the time, with mediums and seances and whatnot being quite popular.) Why did so many people buy into them? They seem so ridiculous to me, on the face of it, but too many of the figures in this account who buy into them seem to have real influence.

And while I find myself sympathizing, a bit, with the royal family's desire for privacy and unwillingness to listen to the wild rumors and whatnot when it came to Rasputin, it also seems somewhat foolish for anyone in a leadership position to fail to address public perceptions, even if they do seem erroneous. How much of the way this plays out is because of poor public relations on their part?

To add another layer of interest - as accusations and rumors fly, I find myself thinking that Russia back then was dealing with what we're dealing with now...

Information warfare, where it's almost impossible to sort fact from fiction, and people spread misinformation for their own personal gain.




Thursday, November 21, 2019

Command, Change, and Trump

The comments on command apply to more than just the military, and describes exactly how Trump alienated his bureaucracy.

If there is a Deep State, Trump created it. And this is how.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2019-11-20/trump-is-picking-a-losing-fight-with-the-navy-over-gallagher?__twitter_impression=true

Sunday, November 17, 2019

Fascinating

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/614689/ghost-ships-crop-circles-and-soft-gold-a-gps-mystery-in-shanghai/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Sunday, November 10, 2019

They'll Drink the Sand

I try my best to make sure I have diverse feeds, and something recently made me realize I was seeing/accepting certain viewpoints that I shouldn't.

Namely - far too many people deride Trump supporters as 'uneducated and/or racist hicks who can't be reasoned with' (or some variant thereof), which honestly just feeds into the narrative on the right of 'coastal elites who look down on hard working Americans', and I found myself thinking about why those 'hard working Americans' don't seem to support the policy suggestions that are most likely to help them.

This isn't to say the most common explanations are entirely wrong, necessarily. We've seen such blatantly racist actions in the last few years that I've had to accept there's far more support for that than I'd previously believed. And it's true that a college degree is a significant factor in political views...

But I'm reminded of something I came across when I was reading up on modern slavery. Reminded that in these places, where the person in charge pays so little (and then loans out money for emergencies, like for health issues, or weddings, and the like), that many of the people who grow deeper and deeper in debt accept the burden of that debt.

They don't want to skip out on it, even if it's unfair and burdensome... because an obligation is an obligation, and they want to pay their debts.

THAT is the attitude that makes people look down on forgiving student loans. I get why and how student loan forgiveness can be a great thing, and not just because I might be able to benefit by it... over and over again we hear about how 'millennials are killing x', and things that essentially boil down to 'we aren't consuming enough'... but how can we consume more when so many of us are burdened by crushing debt? How can millennials buy homes when they're paying the equivalent of a mortgage every month in student loan debt? I mean... I'm luckier than most. Or made better decisions than most, depending on how you want to look at it. Doing ROTC, getting an Army scholarship, and various other things have put me in a much better position than most of the other people I know...

On the other hand - how does someone wind up with over $200K in student loans, anyway? I've never even come close to that level of student loan debt. Maybe if I'd gone to an Ivy League school? Or gone straight to grad school after an undergrad? And why is someone agreeing to take on that level of debt, in the first place? Didn't they look at the average income in their field and figure out how much of a burden it would be?

So the thing about jobs, and creating a booming economy, and discussions on student loan forgiveness and whatnot, is that to some Americans none of that matters. The macroeconomics behind it, the systemic issues (like the rising costs of college, and the way wages haven't kept up with inflation) - none of that matters.

Because people chose to take on certain debts, and are now trying to get out of it.

They don't want freebies, they want 'good' jobs (i.e. jobs that pay well enough that they can afford the things they want.)

Now, there's a whole bunch of other stuff going on. I know, for example, that there was one study showing that support for welfare is associated with white perceptions of minorities.

And the desire for 'good' jobs means you'd think there'd be more support for increasing the minimum wage, especially when the economic boom in cities that have done so shows that at this particular point in time there's an economic case to be made for doing so (in different circumstances, you probably would see the negative consequences so me people predict for raising wages. I don't agree with a blanket statement saying it's always a good policy to do so, but if/when people working 40+ hours a week still need food stamps and/or welfare to make ends meet then a case can be made that people aren't being paid their full economic value. And, again, it's not exactly shocking that people aren't consuming as much and the economy isn't doing as well as it could. Not that those whose income is tied to the stock market necessarily believe that.)

It seems such a shame, to me at least, that so many people who just want to make a good living seem to fall for the con-game Trump is playing. Like that BS about saving jobs at the Carrier plant in Indianapolis, or coal mining, or any number of things where he has talked the talk and utterly failed to walk the walk.

It reminds me of that line in The American President -

People want leadership, Mr. President, and in the absence of genuine leadership, they'll listen to anyone who steps up to the microphone. They want leadership. They're so thirsty for it they'll crawl through the desert toward a mirage, and when they discover there's no water, they'll drink the sand.

Trump, to me, is that mirage... and our current political elite has failed so drastically that people are crawling through the desert towards that mirage, and trying to drink sand.

I think the cynicism in Shepherd's response is the heart of the problem, here. Do we - average voters, the bulk of the American electorate - know the difference between a mirage and true leadership? If we do, then if you believe strongly in a cause and it fails to gain traction, is that because you're missing something and/or not messaging right? Or is this true:

People don't drink the sand because they're thirsty. They drink the sand because they don't know the difference.

In which case, you - the one who knows better than all those idiot people out there - are justified in doing whatever it takes to make the 'right' policy  happen, because people don't know what's good for them. (This, btw, is the 'elitist' attitude people on all sides of an issue can fall prey to.)


interesting

Though I'm not sure it's going to be as disruptive as the author claims, it's still worth thinking about -

https://www.innovationexcellence.com/blog/2018/09/16/a-tsunami-of-disruption-is-coming-and-its-not-ai-or-anything-else-in-the-hype-cycle/

Thursday, November 7, 2019

SJW

Saw this on Twitter today, and it reminded me of something I've thought about expanding on. Might right a longer post on it, or not.

"Moral philosophy starts with the question, how should we live our life. 
Moral wisdom starts with the realization that we don’t already know the answer."
- Shelly Kagan https://t.co/10nZaL8txw

That IS the defining question of religion, I think. 

How should we live our life? 

What are our obligations? 

To God? 

Ourselves? 

Our neighbors? 

The Bible mentions poverty around 300 times. 

Homosexuality? Maybe, depending on how you translate it, 7.

The Bible is clear, Christians should be the strongest social justice warriors.