By best/worst, I mean the best mortality/hospitalization needs in a situation where we just let the virus run its course. Not counting the deaths of an overwhelmed medical system, but also not taking into account the measures we could take to slow the spread.
So if it spreads too fast, and healthcare is overwhelmed, things will be worse.
But if we lock everything down (or, what would have been even better, conduct massive testing and lock down the places actually dealing with cases), things will look better.
And this is where I don't have a good sense of where we're going. Each state, and sometimes even cities and counties, are making choices that will effect what happens.
Some states have gotten serious about that, so it's slowing the spread and things might not get that bad.
Others? Well, I could wish the governor of Florida was more concerned about reducing transmission within his state, instead of acting as though all they had to worry about was outsiders coming in. I mean, any reduction in travel will prob help, but a) how will they know who is coming from a hotspot? As many pointed out, people often rent cars with license plates from other states and b) as widespread as this is, with cases in every state, it doesn't make sense to pick and choose who you're going to try and force to take precautionary measures. If you're going to ignore all the people already infected within your state, and try to keep 'outsiders' from bringing more cases in, you really ought to just stop everyone crossing your border.
Its the illogical and inconsistent countermeasures that get me. They just don't make sense.
Anyways. Point is Idk what the end result will be, I recommend checking with the professionals (Dr Fauci was estimating something like 100,000 deaths? Which may reflect the effort so many of us have made so far), but I can see why they're all taking this so seriously and I hope enough of us are staying home to make a difference.
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