Predictions

I should be focusing on my job hunt, yet I big red warning signs are blaring every time I check the news. So I figured I'd type some stuff out, try to get a better sense of what I think is going to happen.

I do not claim to be able to predict what Trump et al will come up with next, but I do think we can make some educated guesses.

First - as we saw in his first term, Trump has a tendency to say or attempt to do something wildly crazy. Then when (or if) he gets pushback, he flip flops. For some reason this seems to make it easier for him to get away with shit, because people learn to ignore all the outrageous stuff...

But the thing of it is, he only flip flops when he gets pushback. I am quite certain that if people went along with whatever crazy thing he suggested, that he would not tone himself down on his own. If anyone had actually listened to him when he tweeted 'stop the count' the night of the 2020 election, I doubt he would have said 'I'm just joking, finish counting the votes like you're supposed to'.

In other words - he pushes. He tests. He tries. He isn't holding himself back, isn't restrained, won't stop because something is illegal or 'not the way it's done'... he only stops when he faces too much resistance.

As a defender, btw, this is a notorious problem. In cybersecurity, in counterterrorism - you have to defend everywhere, whereas the attacker has the ability to pick and choose and put their efforts into wherever they detect a weak spot.

So anyways - Trump pushes. He prods. When he gets a reaction he flip flops and pulls the 'what, I wasn't going to do that!' bullshit.

But you can see the direction he's pushing us in. That was obvious even before Jan 6, because he took every opportunity to yell about how the election was stolen. It wasn't just something he complained about in private, he actively pushed the narrative.

Never provided proof for it, but that doesn't seem to bother his supporters.

Anyways. He actively pushed the narrative that the election was stolen, which frankly had predictable results - a large part of the population doubted the results of the election, doubted Biden was the legitimately elected president, and were open to suggestions to take action to 'fix' things.

It's a bit like when a mob boss orders a hit, or perhaps the better term is 'stochastic terrorism'. No incriminating command, no direct order... but he shapes the environment so that what he wants to happen is highly likely to. He praises those doing what he wants, condemns those that might get in the way, and his loyal followers pretty much know what he wants anyway.

So now let's look at where we're at today. Now, the strange thing about the US is that we have a long tradition of 'the citizen soldier', we have things like the Posse Comitatus Act, and if Trump truly tried to activate the military to perform some sort of tyrannical takeover he is highly likely to fail.

If he were obvious about it like that.

I'm pretty sure Jan 6 happened the way it did in part because he knew just ordering the military to step in would fail. (Though he sure has taken steps to replace anyone who would refuse, so with his current cronies in place who knows if that still holds true?)

So instead we have this stuff about activating the National Guard... which is weird, because they actually belong to their respective states. But there's the Insurrection Act of 1807, and so we're seeing a lot of Trump claiming he needs the National Guard to suppress civil disorder, and state governors' denying that, and then a lot of this has gotten tangled up in court. (DC is a separate case, because the District of Colombia isn't a state and their National Guard actually does report to the president.)

Oh, and this is also why ICE is important. It's basically the military he wants rather than the military he has, though because it was specifically created to deal with immigration he can't use it the way a military can. Instead he can use them to create a situation that justifies calling in the military. (And also why protesters are being very careful right now. Taking a stand while also refusing to incite further violence is a tricky place to be, though so far I think they're doing well.)

Right now this all just means that everything is a confusing mess. Trump is saying all sorts of shit (like usual), the National Guard may or may not be activated, it might end up a nothingburger where they clean parks or it might be the next stage in inciting a civil war... who knows?

We've all been given that Chinese curse to live in interesting times, because the times sure are interesting!

Oh, did I say something about 'inciting a civil war'? Right... going back to how he shapes the environment to get what he wants?

What do you think he's been doing today?

What's with all the rants about the 'Radical Left'. The way they just glomped onto the Charlie Kirk assassination to start talking about left wing violence - even as right wing violence continues unabated. Even escalated, we might say. If you doubt what I'm saying, check for how many of the people upset about Charlie Kirk's assassination speak out at all about the home of a judge who ruled against Trump burning down.

He is stoking the divide with every speech. Building up anger at blue states, the 'Radical Left', Democrats, all of it. He's threatening major cities, blaming any violence on the left...

He's not even subtle about it.

But... as I've mentioned before, there's a relationship between leader and led and people are not all mindless minions that blindly follow along.

Which is why I'm not sure about what happens next. Perhaps that escalating tension will continue to rise and we're headed for a violent and bloody civil war.

Perhaps governors will call up their National Guard, and Trump will use that to justify calling in the US Army.

Or perhaps someone will refuse to obey an (illegal?) order, and the attempt to incite further violence will get bogged down in the courts like so many other things.

Maybe Trump will be ousted under the 25th Amendment.

Maybe things will just remain awkward and strange but mostly the same (except for the immigrants and the detention camps) until we have another election and successfully get this kakistocracy out.

I don't know... what I do know is this.

He and his people will keep pushing, keep testing, keep probing and prodding, and the only way it will stop is if people remain firm and make them.