Bad Feeling

 I am developing a bad feeling about current events - though given it seems like a continuation of what we've already been seeing, I'm not sure why it's happening now.

I figure I'll type this all out to see if I can get some clarity.

First, as usual - fear and hope both make it hard to think clearly. I personally try to set those aside and look for real world indicators. See if they support or refute that intuition.

Second, and I think I've said this before - inertia is a powerful force. If you're going to try to predict the future, more of the same is generally the most likely course of action.

Right up until it isn't. We're pretty bad at figuring out what's actually relevant and what isn't, which is why history is full of surprises. Surprises that, in hindsight, always have clear indicators and could have been predicted if we had known their importance. Examples include the fall of the Soviet Union, 9/11, World War I, the Russian Revolution, the French Revolution, and so on and so forth.

So what indicators should we be looking at?

That gets complicated, but I do think this article lays out some of them. The violence entrepreneurs, which I think is a great phrase and probably explains some of what led to the fighting in Bosnia-Herzegovina. The way leadership is escalating rather than toning down the tension. The increasingly bipartisan violence (i.e. we have had right-wing inspired violence for ages now, which people conveniently seem to overlook. Left-wing inspired violence is beginning to grow now. It reminds me a bit about how the Shi'a ignored Sunni provocations right up until the al-Askara mosque was bombed, which is when the Sunni-Shia conflict really took off.) 

And finally, the politicization of law enforcement.

Underlying all of this is a giant blind spot that far too many Americans have. 

I've touched on that blind spot repeatedly, but it was only in response to my uncle's post on Facebook that I really got to thinking about it.

There are times when we collectively just seem to... pretend something isn't happening. Or doesn't exist.

I don't really know how to say it any better than that, and it feels like talking about it doesn't help because the people who overlook the things I mention will overlook my own mentioning of them.

Which is why I sometimes use the term 'cognitive dissonance'. When confronted with something that doesn't match the narrative, that disrupts what's expected... there's dissonance and people get uncomfortable and just... look away.

Sometimes I think how people handle information like that is the true test of character, and integrity. 

Like, is that what happens when someone in the oil industry is confronted with their environmental impact? Cognitive dissonance, discomfort... and rejection. At best it leads to just pretending the evidence doesn't exist. At worst, they will discredit the evidence and try to come up with some justification for continuing on as they have been.

It's so much easier than having to actually deal with it.

I think it also happens with sexual harassment cases. 

Let me explain.

When I have been in leadership positions, there have been times my people have brought to my attention something that I know is going to be a pain to deal with. Accusations from person A regarding person B, though the instance I'm thinking of was more about workplace bullying.

These things are really hard to address as a manager, because I don't actually know who is telling the truth. Addressing it and getting it wrong will make things worse, ignoring it will make things worse, but getting it right? Is almost impossible. I was not actually there when the incident took place. And both parties generally have their own friends who will back each other up, making it impossible to know the truth. And yet I am still supposed to address it in a fair and balanced manner, and I definitely do NOT want to make my employees feel like bullying is acceptable behavior. That would just create a toxic work environment.

And there is this temptation, perhaps for a split second, where I do kind of resent them for bringing this mess to my attention. Where I wish it would just go away.

But see all of my prior statements. Doing so will make things worse, and create a work environment I don't want. Even aside from moral right and wrong, it tends to be bad for business, you know? Leads to turnover and poor performance and all that.

This is what I think happens with sexual harassment accusations sometimes. The person it's reported to is probably like "I just want us to do our regular jobs and why do I have to deal with this mess and why did you have to tell me this?"

Which can lead to covering it up, blaming the victim, and basically making the person who reported it feel like they were retaliated against.

I've learned to pay close attention to moments like that. Moments where something disrupts everything and is going to be a real pain in the ass to deal with.

As an aside, I think that's part of why I liked the Untamed so much. The main character was confronted with a moment where he either had to act and do the right thing at great cost to himself, or just... look away. He chose to act, which ultimately led to his death (he got better! It's kind of what the whole plot is about.)

In his case, many others in the so-called 'righteous' sects looked away instead. Well, righteousness and the hypocrisy of sects that claim to be righteous is a pretty common theme in xianxia novels.

To bring this back on topic - I think the events of Jan 6 trigger that sort of internal conflict. I've talked about it before. About how Trump never had evidence that the election was stolen, how he repeatedly claimed it was for months leading up to Jan 6. How nobody would have even been there on that day if he hadn't used his political power to push that narrative, to the point where many Americans genuinely believe him. (You wouldn't need all those youtube videos and that blasted documentary if there was real evidence. No, 60+ judges weren't in a conspiracy to cover it up. If there was anything solid, it would have been admissible in court and we would have known. But that's not what Trump's supporters want to hear, is it?)

Yeah, Jan 6 happened because of deliberate action on Trump and his supporters parts. The fake elector plot makes it 10000x worse. I know most Americans don't really understand this tedious sort of civics, but the states determine how many electoral votes a president gets. They do this whole certification process that can take weeks, that includes comparing the voter lists to the death list (since deaths can take a while to get updated) which is how they catch the voter fraud cases where someone voted on behalf of someone who died, and all of that stuff is decided ahead of time. 

Then the states determine send the results to Congress and Congress reads the results in. 

There is, apparently, a provision for questioning the legitimacy of a state's results from the Electoral Count Act of 1887 after a disputed election, and that if there was a dispute the two houses of Congress would separate and debate the question for at most two hours. Then vote to accept or reject the objection. And if both houses support the objection?

Then those votes are excluded. Not handed over to the other candidate. They just don't count at all.

Anyways, the news didn't really discuss how Trump and his allies sent fake electors, ones NOT certified by their state to give the results.

The results were not in question, but they sure tried their best to make it look like they were.

But think about what that means. Think about what we would have to do to address it.

We're talking about impeaching and maybe even arresting and putting on trial a very popular political figure. One whose base is known for targeting anyone their leader dislikes.

It would have been a real pain in the ass to deal with, and it really could have led to more political violence.

I personally still think we had to do it, probably for some of the same reasons I felt I had to address some of those workplace issues.

Ignoring it makes everything even worse.

But I watched. Watched how horrified everyone was the day of - and how quickly it dropped off everyone's radar.

How quickly people didn't even say 'move on', but just... didn't really talk about it. 

How quickly the partisan divide cropped up, how easily people convinced themselves that it was just some protest that got out of hand.

Nothing to see here. Nothing we need to actually do something about. 

And oh, by the way, the completely incompetent leader who manufactured the belief that the election was stolen in the first place?

He got re-elected only four years later.

That same dissonance, that same willingness to overlook things, it keeps cropping up again and again.

The lack of outcry over the NSPM-7 stuff? Looking the other way as Trump uses the Charlie Kirk assassination to escalate things even further? ICE detaining US citizens? That horrific speech to all the senior military leaders?

I look around, and this isn't the America I thought I knew.

Though, knowing what I know of history, perhaps I shouldn't be so shocked.

I don't know how this is going to end, but I am pretty sure of one thing - we're not even through Trump's first year.

It's only going to get worse, and it won't stop unless or until we make it stop.

Or maybe Trump's bad health will finally catch up to him. Who knows?

But those violence entrepreneurs? They're really working hard. And far too many Americans don't even seem to realize it.