Monday, June 27, 2022

Musings On Voter Party Registration

Saw the article about how '1 million Americans switch registration to Republican', which right wing media is ofc running with...

I wanted more details on how or why they think that, because it's completely contrary to what I'm seeing (conservatives disgusted by Jan 6 and the Republicans supporting Trump regardless of his oath breaking, and choosing to leave the party).

And then it hit me...

I voted in my states primary last week, and I chose the Republican ballot (we're able to choose whichever day of) because frankly I wanted to vote against any candidate foolish enough to still tout their loyalty to Trump.

I'm not kidding when I say I'm a one issue voter this year. 

Anyways, I know why I did it... And it doesn't actually mean any real change in affiliation (which is independent, honestly, but I'll choose whichever party I want to vote in the primaries for)...

And in the midterms, I'll be pretty much voting against all Republicans who haven't publicly stood against Trump and his election lies.

That's not to say the other voters are thinking the same way I am...

Just that if they got that number from people switching the party they're registered with in the primaries, then it doesn't necessarily mean what they think it does. 

Saturday, June 25, 2022

America Today, Continued (aka the Silent Majority)

 A long, long, long time ago I learned that there had been a debate over the best strategy for advancing civil rights. It's been long enough that I probably have the details wrong (this article discussing some of the history behind it, and it's not quite what I remember), but what I recall of it was this...

Slavery was legalized within a very short time frame, so some people felt the legal system could be used to reverse the effects. These are the ones who pushed for legal action, like Brown vs. the Board of Education.

Others wanted to focus on economic advancement. I'm not sure about what all was involved with that (as Brown vs. Board of Education shows, the legal strategy seemed to take precedence) but I believe some of it involved supporting black businesses and access to a good education and the like. (Immigrant communities in the US often work together to succeed. For example, they might pool their resources so one member can open a restaurant, and they might help work in that restaurant until it succeeds. Then the one who benefited from all that support will pay into the fund and help out as the next person starts a small business.)

And... I have to wrap this up quick, because I just heard some thunder and my dogs are now making it far too hard to type.

Point was this - we have seen that the legal strategy has some pretty big drawbacks. Top down does have an impact, but that impact can be diffused when there's a large population that doesn't support it.

The same holds true to trying to impose a reactionary ideology from the top.

As someone who was born after Roe vs. Wade, the truly 'conservative' policy (i.e. in accordance with Russell Kirk's ten principles, which include things like adhering to 'custom, convention, and continuity', prudence, and the importance of reconciling permanence and change) would have been to conserve the traditions we have developed over 40 years. 

These guys aren't conservative. They're reactionary, and they are so determined to turn back the clock that they utterly fail to understand why the things they hate have caught on.

Okay, so they overturned Roe vs Wade.

Now quite a large part of the population are going to ignore whatever laws the states impose to stop abortion.

Some of them will get caught (just as some of the hospitals in Texas have reported families of trans children. Or reported a woman who had a miscarriage as if she'd chosen an abortion...) but quite a few will also just quietly look the other way.

Because they don't agree with the decision, don't think it's wrong, don't think it's any of their business, and don't support it.

Others will actively find ways around it, hence the beginning of the debate over whether states who allow abortion will cooperate with legal requests from states who have made it illegal.

All of which is going to be a freaking mess, and there will be some people who will suffer badly.

But for the most part, most of that silent majority is just going to ignore the Supreme Court's decision, and find ways around any laws the reactionary states pass.

(Whether the reactionaries will have enough power to take the next logical step - from their perspective - of becoming yet more authoritarian and invasive in their attempts to force an unwilling population to obey their poorly thought out laws - well, that remains to be seen.)

America Today

 Yesterday the Supreme Court overturned Roe vs. Wade, and it's all over the news. And Twitter. 

Facebook seems pretty weird right now, though. The people upset over it are definitely aware and posting, and yet the ones who you'd think are happy are... not saying anything.

Well, I didn't want to post about that anyway. My thoughts and feelings are complicated.

Or rather, I have had friends who have had abortions, and trusted me enough to tell me about the decision... and it was clearly a tough choice. They were in a difficult place, and I'm not sure what I would have done if I were in their shoes...

But what I DO know is that the absolutely last thing I'd have ever told those women is that they were murderers or baby killers. Perhaps that's really what pushed me towards being pro-choice? I may not choose one myself, but I sure as hell don't want to tell any other woman what she should do.

Especially not on something as life-changing as having a  baby. 

Especially not in a society that punishes and penalizes women so much, especially if they are a single mother.

Especially not when men can be abusive and controlling, and yes some of them will deliberately try to get a woman pregnant (for some jacked up reason that I don't really understand, tbh. One of the women who had an abortion had found out her husband at the time (iirc) was sabotaging her birth control pills.)

But this post isn't about being pro-choice. It's more about the dissonance between what I see online and what I see when I go out and about.

I am aware that, as a news junkie who is almost always online, my awareness of current events doesn't match the average American.

That's not a judgement on them... if I had to raise children on top of my full time job, I don't think I'd have near as much time for all that. There'd be work, getting the kids to and from school, making dinner, making sure they do their homework... 

Despite constant clips showing how uninformed the general public is, I trusted that with the wisdom of crowds and a few news junkies keeping their friends and families informed, it wasn't as bad as it sounded.

But 'the wisdom of crowds' only works when everyone interacts in good faith. When someone is motivated to manipulate the results, they can interfere with the process and skew it badly. (Sometimes people get so busy trying to play 5D chess that they overcomplicate things, too. I've had some ideas on the lines of the Simple Gifts song, but I don't think I'll get to that today.)

So anyways. If you are a news junkie, it seems like we're headed straight for doomsday.

The Supreme Court is going to turn the United States into Gilead, Trump or DeSantis will win in 2024 and it'll be a repeat of the rise of Hitler, but in the US this time. We aren't doing enough to stop climate change, and life will be wiped out on earth in twenty years. White christian nationalists are going to keep escalating the violence, and we'll wind up in a civil war. Putin will use nukes, China will attack Taiwan, something or other will happen and we'll all be embroiled in World War III... a devastating nuclear war that leaves the world in ruins. The rich will hoard all the wealth, turning the lower classes into the equivalent of slaves or serfs (the name will probably be different, but people will be unable to ever save up enough money not just for financial security, freedom, and independence but to do anything that will help better themselves.) After all, wealthy want people to be forced to accept crappy jobs at low wages with little to no benefits. Oh, and they're buying up all the houses and will force people to pay high rents... adding to financial instability. People will be stuck working crappy jobs that barely pay for room and board, watching all the wealth the company earns go to people who already have more than enough. And climate change will hit, but those wealthy 1%ers will go off to their little safe houses in places like New Zealand, while people who were never paid enough to save up for anything will get wiped out... financially if not literally... by the natural disasters headed our way.

Everywhere you look, it's fears like this that underlie everything. (I'm sure there are also fears I haven't listed here, mostly because I think it's obvious nonsense. Like the great replacement theory.)

If you go online, you see this everywhere. 

And yet...

And yet I want to my Little's high school graduation, where American families of all shapes and sizes came together to celebrate their kids.

And before covid, I took her to some of her high school football games... a time when many local American communities come together. 

Again, all shapes and sizes.

The news is full of fools acting ugly in public places, because it's NOT news when millions of Americans go to the grocery store and nothing happens.

I am cautious about taking this further, because it starts sounded eerily similar to Nixon's 'silent majority'...

Except that I don't think this 'silent majority' supports the things implied by Nixon.

I also don't want to read too much into it, because it doesn't matter if they don't vote. Midterms, especially, are hard to get any but the most dedicated partisans to pay attention to.

Plus, unfortunately, some are silent because they don't publicly want to admit to what they really think.

The silence regarding Trump's involvement in the Jan 6th attack on the capitol worries me for that reason. 

But... for the most part, all around the country, Americans come together in local high schools and local shopping centers, and do so peacefully. 

There might be a bit of eye-rolling, a bit of venting on social media about something they saw that bothered them (people not wearing masks, people wearing masks, people wearing 'Let's Go Brandon' shirts, people wearing rainbows, etc), and life goes on.

This, of course, is what accelerationists and the people trying to stoke tensions are bothered by. 

This humdrum, ordinary, getting on with your day routine gets in the way of... a lot of things. 

Both good and bad. After all, the people not out there protesting mask mandates are also not out there protesting the Supreme Court's decision overturning Roe vs. Wade.

Nor do they seem to understand the dangers threatening our democracy.

They're not out there paying attention and taking greedy fools to task, any more than they're standing up to the Proud Boys are calling for cops to weed out the white supremacists among them. They're not yelling 'Eat the Rich', and they're also not supporting the trucker's convoy. 

They just keep on getting on with life.

They provide inertia, and stability, and trying to get them energized and pointed in one direction is a herculean task. 

It's hard to tell what will truly stir them up, and to what degree.

And I'm not sure how much any decision made at the national level matters, here.

This has gotten long enough that I think I'll stop it here, and continue in the next post.

 

Tuesday, June 21, 2022

Jan 6 Hearings

I really liked Bowers' testimony today, especially when he said this - "You are asking me to do something against my oath, and I will not break my oath"

And it reminded me of just how frustrated I've been, ever since Jan 6, with the people downplaying what happened and acting like it was no big deal. (This is part of why I can't take seriously anybody talking about Trump in 2024. I mean, I guess journalists have to report it if he really does run... But Jan 6 should have made Trump dead in the water to all Americans. Even, if not especially, the supposed 'law and ordee' Republican party). 

I can not express how much it disgusts me that people still talk about Trump as though he didn't break his oath of office to preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution. 

Even worse, the way so few of the 'powers-that-be' seem to even care about it. 

From openly plotting illegal behavior, to Ginny Thomas, to the lack of pressure for Trump to resign, to the unwillingness to impeach... 

It's pathetic. 

So it was nice to see Bowers care, and care deeply, about his oath and his duty to the Constitution. 

I'm sick of all the trolls and enablers and people trying to normalize what happened. 


Sunday, June 12, 2022

Seed Corn

 I promised to talk more about seed corn before, so this seems like a good time to expound on that.

First... I was trying to look up a reference, but unfortunately my google searches returns results that aren't quite what I was looking for. 

I am not, at all, a farmer and I don't know much about ancient agriculture, so perhaps I'm misremembering something... but I remember hearing that when you plant a new fruit tree it's best to pinch off any fruit (and perhaps flowers? I know flowers are very energy intensive, so pinching them off can help a new plant devote more energy to growing it's roots and leaves and things) for the first couple of years. 

Which fits in with my theory that some biblical advice was actually a way of passing on practical knowledge. Remember - it's not like they had our concept of science or fact-based history back then. So if you discover that your fruit trees grow stronger if you prevent them from fruiting in their first few years, adding a religious law - like Leviticus 19:23-25 - is a great way of establishing the practice.

Oh, there's also some stuff about cultural identity and whatnot, but I personally find the Bible fascinating for how it shows a relationship between us and God and not because it's some infallible text wherein God dictated every word. (Certain hygienic practices helped prevent the spread of disease, so it's not hard to believe that humans saw a relationship between certain rituals of cleanliness and decided it indicated God's will in the matter. And an atheist might take that as proof that there isn't a god, and a believer might say that's just the actual way that God makes His will known, and I'll let you all decide which you prefer.)

 My main point is just that the knowledge captured in the Bible can be very practical.

And it's not just about agriculture, or practices that protected people from disease and illness. There's quite a bit of social engineering there, too. Reducing the risk of tribal warfare and escalating feuds, building a sense of compassion and empathy for our neighbors and foreigners in our midst and not just our particular families or tribes...

Too bad people use it to reinforce their own tribalism instead of getting what the Bible was teaching, but if I go into that any further I'll derail myself.

I wanted to talk about seed corn. That's basically corn meant to be saved from a harvest and used as seeds for the next year's crop.

Eating your seed corn was a sign of desperation, because it might allow you to survive this year... but meant you had nothing to plant in spring.

You can see why this fits in neatly with my previous commentary on husbandry, conservation management, etc.

But, in the States at least, so much of our agriculture is now automated that most people no longer understand such references. Not on the visceral level they used to, at least. (At Mom's funeral, she had made clear she wanted us to use the Bible voice about the sheep knowing God's voice... because Grandpa used to raise sheep, and she remembered quite clearly how the sheep would come at the sound of his voice.)

We have what, 1-2% of our population with jobs in agriculture any more?

Which means it's a lot harder to fit these stories into our modern lives.

So let's talk about seed corn... 

It's the idea that we should save some of our current resources, so that they will create even more for us in the future. That setting aside a fraction of our harvest now will allow us to plant and harvest again next year.

You can apply that on an individual level in any way you wish... I wanted to apply that on more of a macroeconomic scale.

Economists talk a lot about 'stimulus', and there's quite a debate over whether a government can shift the economy out of a depression by stimulating it with government spending. There's also discussion about whether it creates inflation, and there are others who disagree with Keynesianism (stimulating the economy with government spending, among other things)...

So this is a large and complex field and you probably ought to talk to two or three economists from different theoretical camps if you really want to understand it. I know a little, and as this is my blog I'll speculate and theorize as much as I want, but I would encourage you to seek out the experts if you really want to dig into this.

What I will tell you is that there have been some interesting studies on what's happened when cities raised their minimum wage, and that it did not lead to the dire consequences many economists predicted. Some say that there's been a reduction in compensation and that ultimately workers get less, others have said that the everyone (workers AND employers) benefited.  

I would give two additional thoughts to this debate. First, as some have pointed out, the impact probably varies depending on what the minimum wage is. Theoretically, it's entirely possible that really high wages will have all the negative effects economists predicted... and that the only reason we aren't seeing them here is because shrinking wages mean people at the lower end of the socioeconomic scale are making os little that it'd take a really significant increase before we'd see that sort of a problem.

The second thing - is that economics is truly a socioeconomic field. That is, our society and the norms and expectations of everyone in it shapes the results. I say this in part because I have seen how, in the US, certain regulatory requirements (like for healthcare, etc) have led to employers cutting hours so that employees didn't qualify. If you have to give healthcare to anyone working 40 hours or more, you just make sure they never work more than 40 hours... right? (Yet another reason why I hate having our healthcare tied to employment, but that's another digression).

And  yet other societies, with different norms and expectations, don't see those sorts of results. You can argue whether those societies are more community oriented, or whether people who run businesses care more about their fellow citizens, or whether they aren't trying to get around the spirit of the law with shady practices...

Whatever the reason, there's clearly a cultural difference that affects how successful such policies are.

On a macroeconomic level, what's our seed corn?

Tbh - it's probably a combination of things. After all, you need consumers consuming... you need banks lending... you need money to invest and build and actual resources to manufacture. 

Really, the economy is complex and interconnected... and most parts have their role. 

It's just that (to use garden analogies again) some parts need periodically pruned  back, and run the risk of overrunning the rest. 

This is part of why it's impossible to create hard and fast rules. It's more a question of 'which parts are out of whack'. 

So let's talk a bit about stimulus and monetary expansion.

A dollar is a dollar, but a dollar can lead to MORE dollars.

I'll try to keep this at a very basic level, so bear with me.

If you put money in a savings account, the bank actually uses a portion of that money to lend to other people. That's part of why you collect interest on the account. So you're dollar in the bank is also used to help someone else start a business (as one example), which means it's used to help buy raw materials and hire other people and thus creates more than just $1.

The same goes for last year's pandemic checks... and since most people spend it right away, it almost all stimulates the economy. Someone uses their check to buy their kids school clothes, which gives more money to the retailer and the manufacturer, who hire more people, who have money to spend on things like video games, which means video games sell well and the retailers and manufacturers hire more people... around and around it goes. 

Some people also blame our current inflation on this. More money chasing fewer resources. Again I'd say talk to an expert, but I personally think the Russian war on Ukraine and the supply chain disruption from the pandemic have more to do with it than that... and one other thing. Businesses who try to pass on wage increases to the customer. 

This goes back to what I said above, about socioeconomic practices and norms and expectations. If workers demand more money (and the labor market is tight because of the pandemic, so workers have been doing exactly that) then a business either has to accept less profit.. or pass the added expense along to the customer by raising prices.

This is where complaints about 'price gouging', 'monopolies', and 'corporate greed' come from. After all, how can you have record profits when gas and labor costs more? Answer: By jacking up prices.

Anyways. I do think that wage increases provide more stimulus than giving a billionaire another million bucks...

What sort of additional spending is Elon Musk going to do if he makes even more money? Or Jeff Bezos? They are already more than capable of spending everything they want, and to be honest a little bit more money here or there isn't going to make a difference.

But giving the bottom 40% more money? Not just in a once or twice a year stimulus check, but reliably? With every paycheck?

That's more money to spend on going to the movies. Or buying a new car. Or getting new appliances. Or eating out a little bit more often. Or buying a new book. Or getting another video game.

You get the idea...

The economy will do better all around if people at the bottom have discretionary money.

Which is why I want to slap some of the people I've stumbled across on social media. They were talking about the rule of thumb that you should only spend 1/3rd of your paycheck on housing, and seemed to think it was a silly rule.

People can just move to a cheaper location, or get roommates, or pay more... 

Even though paying more means less money for all those 'extra' things. Things that make life a little bit more enjoyable, and also help the economy grow.

Even though moving to a cheaper location may mean more challenges getting to and from work.

And as for roommates... that can work well, and can also be extremely stressful. It's fine when people are doing it by choice, but I don't think any adult should be forced to do so simply because it's impossible to find affordable housing any other way.

They're basically finding ways to justify the status quo, to say that everything is fine, and that there's nothing wrong.

And so we have an economy that's eating it's seed corn.


Wednesday, June 8, 2022

Systemic Issues

What sort of system accepts outcomes like this?

I talked about husbandry before, and this is definitely not it. 

It also highlights why the people who benefit from this seem like bratty and spoiled kids... 

Sure, they cooked something up in the kitchen - but they left it up to everyone else to clean up the mess made in the process.

No sense of responsibility, no concern for the impact on other people... 

But they think what... That economic growth outweighs the harm they do?

Leaving aside whether that's the best metric for a quality life, how much economic damage did this cause in the process? 

Wage Stagnation Ii

Maybe it's better to just use median annual wages...

In 2019 that was $31,113.

In 1954 it was $4,200 (for a family, so again it might be apples to oranges... Though I think back then most families were single income so it might be fine?)

Adjusting for inflation, $4200 in 1954 is $39,916. 71 in 2019 dollars.

At least $8000 less a year for the lower half. 

Wage Stagnation

Saw a post saying wages had grown steadily today, but it didn't seem to account for inflation, so I went looking.

The problem is that it's hard to find data in a consistent format. 

That is, I want it adjusted for inflation, plus broken down by percentile (wage of lowest 10%, 20%, median, upper 20%, 10%, etc)...

I found the median hourly wage today, but then could only find median annual wages in 1954.

Like... If that's how much they made in a year, did that include overtime? Is converting that to hourly enough to allow an apples to apples comparison or is it apples to oranges?

I wish they'd be consistent.

Anyways, this 2018 Pew Research seems the closest to what I was looking for,except it's looking at average wages instead of median.

If you don't know, averages can be skewed by really high or low numbers. So if people in the top 1% make a lot of money, the average will be higher... But you may still have a lot of people at the lower income levels who aren't any better off... Or may even be worse off.

Median is somewhat better in this case, because it means half the people make more and half make less. 

If the median point today is $19.33/hr, half of people today make more than that... And half make less.

That seems to be about $2/hr in 1954 dollars... So what was the median wage in 1954? 

Saturday, June 4, 2022

Husbandry

My aunt shared this post on Facebook, it's about a man who has helped track down and save rare and unique heirloom apple varieties. 

I thought it fit in rather well with my recent theme, considering how much time and effort he spends conserving these apple resources. 

And it also makes me think of larger socioeconomic trends. 

I can't say I think it was wrong for the commercial apple industry to push out so many smaller, more local varieties. The solutions to the problems of one era often become the source of problems in the next. 

By which I mean coming up with ways to grow and ship plentiful food is an accomplishment, and beats starvation.

Commercializing apples, especially varieties good for shipping, was not bad... It's just that I would hope it could be done without making all these other varieties extinct. I do feel a loss for the apple varieties and tastes we may never know. (plus given what happened with bananas, it seems risky. If you only have one type of fruit and it's vulnerable to some plant disease, you could lose not just one variety... But all the if it.) 

I also like how they described local practices - planting a couple of different varieties so you had ripe apples all through the fruiting season. It's not the kind of thing that would work for a commercial farm, I think... But perfect for a small family homestead.

There's a lot of pent up demand for homesteading I think. Well, some of that may just be daydreaming... Most of the people talking about it know it'd take more resources than they have. 

I've thought about it myself, but I know enough about farming to know that it's a lot of work... And crop profits can be unpredictable. I think I'd rather keep my current job... But I wouldn't mind providing some stability for others who want to homestead. 

Uh... Basically the dream isn't necessarily to homestead as a family. Though it's not necessarily not that, either. 

Its more like... Have some more self-sufficiency, sustainability, feel the joy of growing your own food, and share that with a few people you like being around.

Also a slower pace of life, more in tune with the seasons. 

Friday, June 3, 2022

Masculinity

A good video about masculinity, and toxic masculinity

I still think about the term 'husband' which can mean to 'use (resources) economically; conserve.'

Husbanding. Building. Developing... 

Too much of that seems missing today. 


Thursday, June 2, 2022

Monitoring...

The monkeypox cases are curious...

Since it's been around for a while, and seems pretty obvious when you have it, it seems strange that we could have community spread without any warning.

It doesn't seem like we really know much... But it seems likely that (as someone else put it) either there was a change to monkeypox or a change in us.

Or both, I suppose. 

Anyways, if the virus itself didn't change, I've heard two plausible explanations for why it's spreading now.

One is that most people no longer get the smallpox immunization. (I am... Actually kind of happy I got it when I was in the military, I guess. Though it's been almost 20yrs so I'm not sure how much of a help it'd be).

The second is that this might be a side effect of covid. This thread has a technical explanation above my level of knowledge...

But if I understand it correctly it seems covid attacks the cells that make up our immune system (especially t-cells), thus making us more vulnerable to secondary infections.

It still seems too early for any definitive answer. I hope it's not as bad as it sounds.