Russia

I always pay attention to the stories people tell themselves.

Although there are people who will build a narrative they don't actually believe (especially the bad faith actors I complain about), I think a surprising number of people really do believe what they're saying.

The narrative works because people find it believable. (note that believable does not equal factual. We are storytelling people, and a believable story spreads farther and faster than dry scientific analysis with their statistically significant p-values).

And in Russia, especially, we know Putin and his people generally control the news. Which means the narrative there is likely what they want people to believe.

Which is why I think, no matter how much I don't want it to be true, that there aren't many signs that Putin is looking for an exit ramp.

I don't know what diplomats or intel analysts are seeing, but I see far too many indicators that the narrative in Russia is moving in this direction.

That's not a narrative to calm people down, nor to convince them that whatever Russia has gained so far is enough to call it a victory.