Russia

I always pay attention to the stories people tell themselves.

Although there are people who will build a narrative they don't actually believe (especially the bad faith actors I complain about), I think a surprising number of people really do believe what they're saying.

The narrative works because people find it believable. (note that believable does not equal factual. We are storytelling people, and a believable story spreads farther and faster than dry scientific analysis with their statistically significant p-values).

And in Russia, especially, we know Putin and his people generally control the news. Which means the narrative there is likely what they want people to believe.

Which is why I think, no matter how much I don't want it to be true, that there aren't many signs that Putin is looking for an exit ramp.

I don't know what diplomats or intel analysts are seeing, but I see far too many indicators that the narrative in Russia is moving in this direction.

That's not a narrative to calm people down, nor to convince them that whatever Russia has gained so far is enough to call it a victory. 

How Empires Fall

"Yet every state and society faces serious challenges. The difference lies in whether the underlying structures are healthy enough to effectively respond to those challenges. Viewed in this light, it’s less the massive earthquake than whether the damaged infrastructure is rebuilt; not the crushing battlefield defeat, but whether competent new recruits and materiel can be found to replace what’s lost; not the feckless, unclothed emperor, but whether the political system can either effectively work around him or remove him from power altogether. Successful states and societies are resilient when faced with serious challenges. Falling empires are not."

From this article

That's why the inability to adapt, to solve our collective problems, and to have a system that responds to our needs is so dangerous.

And why the out of touch powers blocking our ability to respond are a greater danger to the US than any of this culture war crap. 

Current State of Affairs

We have people dealing with this, and yet Congress (and other powerful people in this ccoue) are so out of touch or callous that they not only aren't doing anything to help, some are actively making things worse. 

Adaptive Leadership

This is really profound. I especially liked this:

"Sometimes in the leadership vacuum, real leadership emerges to help move people in the correct next direction.

And sometimes in moments of destabilization, in times of trauma and fear, when there is no true adaptive leadership to help people face the loss that comes with change, the people willing to take your gold and call it god show up and claim to have all the answers—no matter how many people they hurt along the way.

We have long needed leadership that is brave and bold and that holds the pain and grief and fear that people have been feeling and helps them to see a vision of what's possible that is new, that is the change that is needed—that is not clinging to a past that will never again be."

That, to me, describes the appeal and failure of Donald Trump. 

No Wonder..

No wonder they keep doing messed up things. This logic is nuts.

I mean... First of all, over the very long haul we're all dead. Eventually. Dust to dust, stars dying, etc. Nothing lasts forever, and it's not supposed to. (In this physical world. I'll leave the discussion on God and souls and eternity outside of this). 

But this is basically an 'ends justifies the means' argument, where the 'end' is humanity's survival and the 'means' are apparently whatever they can pretend is a reasonable method of achieving that end.

Aside from the numerous issues with trying to plan for a billion years (and really, have you ever read Isaac Asimov's Foundation series? Not that you need to in order to understand the challenges, but even a science fiction series where someone predicted an extremely long term future had a number of things not go as expected) there's also the issue that quality matters. 

Or, to use a cliche - it's the journey, not the destination. 

How we get somewhere shapes who we are, and if in the process of getting there we become something terrible... 

Then getting their isn't much of an achievement. 

I'd like to be able to look myself in the mirror and like what I see. To be okay with the decisions I make about who I am and how I get there. And 'winning' or achieving a goal in a way that doesn't allow that is meaningless. 

And While I'm At It...

Ukraine and Russia are one part of this, but it feels like the world really is a gunpowder keg right now. I heard that description applied to the world right before wwi, and never realized just what it would feel like to live in an atmosphere like that.

Its like everyone around the world is itching to start something. 

Which seems so utterly stupid. 

The worst of it, I think, are the ones actively trying to stir the pot. Some of whom seem to seriously think God wants them to kickstart the apocalypse.

As if God couldn't start that just fine on His own. And didn't say things like “But about that day or hour no one knows, not even the angels in heaven, nor the Son, but only the Father." Matthew 24:36

It really seems strange they'd try to hasten God's timing... Seems likely they'd just hasten Him condemning them for failing to care for their neighbors. 

Arrogant. Apparently they hate the world so much they want to destroy rather than fix it... 

And if all they did was make themselves suffer, I wouldn't care. But I don't want to live through an apocalypse, and I absolutely despise those trying to force such a thing on the rest of us. 

Ukraine

I'm seeing quite a few reports regarding how badly Russia has treated Ukrainian civilians.

I don't like the idea of war, especially with the possibility of nukes, but after the Holocaust the world said 'Never again'...

And then proceeded to find ways to look the other way anytime anything occurred that might force governments to act.

I've heard people questioning why Ukraine is getting more attention, when other places (to take a very old example, let's say Rwanda) were ignored... And there's some validity to those criticisms. But more in the sense of 'we should have cared just as much then' than 'so we should continue to ignore unpleasant truths now'.

Like, I don't like where that logic leads, not with the possibility of wwiii and nukes hang over us.

But I like even less the alternative... It validates the belief that our values don't truly exist. That they can be bought, or will be bent in the face of a strong enough bully. 

More importantly, the kind of world Russia shows they're willing to create sucks.

It seems, no matter how much I dislike it, that we're reaching a fork in the road, where we have to decide who we are and what we stand for.