"Fix It"

This quote seems true for a great many things -

“Remember: when people tell you something’s wrong or doesn’t work for them, they are almost always right. When they tell you exactly what they think is wrong and how to fix it, they are almost always wrong.” --Neil Gaiman 

Halloween Update

It's Halloween - in the middle of a pandemic. I remember at the start of the year a meme going around talking about how great this year would be. Halloween on a Saturday, Christmas and New Year's on Friday... 

It's now cliche because it's true. We were so sweet and naive back then. Halloween, and my Little and I haven't even talked about going out to trick-or-treat. (Granted, she's getting older now and is less likely to do it anyway, but there's no point even discussing it.)

Halloween, and the election is Tuesday and we'll have to deal with whatever the fallout is from that. And we'll already be in November, with Thanksgiving and Christmas peaking around the corner...

And if we didn't hit 100,000 new cases yesterday we were awfully close. 

The Dakotas and Idaho are climbing fast, and have some of the most people who aren't willing to take the virus seriously. Part of me wants to think it'll be fine, because of course I do. We know a lot more about the virus now, treatments are better, it was never that deadly in the first place.

However.

I also remember what happened in Italy. And Iran. And New York. I know that the real challenge comes when the hospitals are overwhelmed, and I see no reason to believe any of that has changed.

I also know that the Dakotas, Idaho, all the rural places getting hit right now - they're rural. That is, they tend to be very far away from the nearest hospital. Even if the hospitals weren't overwhelmed, they're less likely to seek treatment or even get it in time, and you'd probably see an uptick in the death rate from that alone. 

We probably won't know the full effect until the pandemic is long over, but the excess mortality rate will probably be telling. It's not a perfect metric, none of them are. Not every excess death will come from covid (though people who can't get treatment for a heart attack in time because all the ICU beds are full with covid patients is still an excess death because of the pandemic, if not directly because of covid.)

It's also going to be somewhat inaccurate in that more people working from home means less driving, means less traffic accidents, means less deaths from traffic, etc. There's also the possibility that more people committed suicide (due to job loss, financial insecurity, mental stress, etc) than they otherwise would have. Doing the excess mortality rate doesn't really tell us how many people died because of the pandemic....

But it at least gives us some sense of which way the error falls. That is, if excess mortality is greater than the average in all the preceding years then we know that something is different, and it's most likely related to the pandemic. We can also estimate how much of that excess mortality is accounted for in our coronavirus numbers, and can see whether there are even more unaccounted for deaths on top of that. (or not). 

Every time I've seen someone do that sort of comparison it's pretty obvious that we're undercounting coronavirus deaths. Every. Single. Time. our current year has had more deaths than in the preceding years, and more than are accounted for by the coronavirus count. It's probably some mix of factors - people dying and having it called pneumonia or stroke instead of covid, people not seeking treatment in time because of the pandemic, the mental health concerns I mentioned above... not every single one of those unaccounted for deaths is going to be covid. But some portion of them are.

So anyways, it's here and it's hitting the rural areas... and maybe we'll get a vaccine or treatment in time, and maybe we won't. If things continue like this we'll probably reach a tipping point in public perception, I just have no idea when it will hit. 

In other news. Well. I don't remember if I mentioned a conditional job offer I got, well over a year ago before I started my current job?

Turns out I can't pass a polygraph to save my life. 

You'll have to take my word for it that I was telling the truth, because the polygraph indicated I wasn't. I am... unsure how to feel. Like, I know the truth, and I know I was telling it. I'm not sure why I didn't pass... I've heard people talk about 'Catholic guilt' before, and I had never really thought we were raised to feel especially guilty, but maybe there's some truth to it? I'm sure a psychologist would have a field day if we could sit and go through different variations of questions and really dig into why I was giving a false positive. (Or is it a false negative? Whatever.)

I suppose it's somewhat soothing, the first time I failed, when my friend said that most of the people she knows who have failed (she works with people who've had polygraphs before) are generally the more honest ones. I mean, it makes me feel better, but it also then raises concerns about what the heck the polygraph test is actually selecting for. 

It seems highly unlikely that I will wind up taking that job, which... is kind of a shame. I wanted to go after APTs, and I wanted to know more about the hidden cyber war we've all got going on. But there are other routes to go in infosec, computer security, etc... many of which don't require a polygraph. Probably most, tbh.

I will probably take a break for at least a week just to let things settle, then I'll start figuring out my next steps. Maybe a lateral move within my current company?

Turning Data Into Intelligence

I was thinking about this in terms of centralization vs decentralization. 

Addendum

You know how we've all learned we "don't want to make a martyr" out of someone?

Like, the actual history behind this is lost, other than some general awareness of Christianity and early Christian history, but it's widely understood that getting rid of someone in such a way that people find them sympathetic and admirable can actually backfire as more people are drawn to their cause.

That's what I mean about discrediting certain tactics. I want 'we don't want to be terrorists' said with that same understanding. Something so deeply accepted into our collective wisdom people don't even know the particular details any more.

Same for propaganda completely untethered from reality. Not 'spin', or differing opinions on the how and why..  But the way people think they really are entitled to create their own facts. 

Election in a Pandemic

 I hate terrorism, but I don't hate terrorists. Mostly. 

Or rather - I am aware that we defeat terrorism by giving people a path out, that the more we label people as 'terrorists' and act like they are irredeemable, the fewer options those who've started down that path have, and the more tightly they cling to it. 

And I hate terrorism. I want the idea that deliberately targeting non-combatants, deliberately doing things to make the people around you feel like they should do what you say out of fear of what you will do to them if you don't - I want it completely and utterly discredited. Proven that it Just. Does. Not. Work. I want anyone who is even tempted to think of it as a strategy to quickly dismiss the idea as foolish and stupid.

Which means that I want to chip away at any support they have, want to make it clear that we don't hate Muslims, don't hate people who believe differently, don't hate those who think poorly of us... but will bring down the wrath of God on anyone who thinks it's okay to go around bombing marketplaces. Or buses. Or airplanes. 

Make sure there's alternatives for people on the edge, make sure there are options... and the ones who are committed and fanatic, well. We can assist them in achieving the martyrdom they desire. Hopefully without dragging others into it.

I was thinking about this in a different context today. Namely, the terrible state of the nation I love and the people responsible for bringing it to this point.

And sure, there is plenty of blame to go around. This has been decades in the making, and acting like it's all one side (or one person) is overly simplistic.

That said, the pandemic is still going strong. We're hitting new highs for cases, and as usual the deaths will follow a couple of weeks later (though perhaps not as bad as when it first hit, in that we know a lot more about the coronavirus and how to treat it. Then again, hospitals are getting full again. And you can sometimes deal with that by sending cases to neighboring hospitals, but that only works so long as the pandemic isn't going strong everywhere at once. Of course, for most people that probably won't matter or affect them... right up until it suddenly does.)

That said, I want the current Republican Party to be completely and utterly rejected. Ridiculed. Marginalized. I want people to look at them as a lesson on what not to do, so that future politicians Never. Do. This. Again.

I tentatively have my hopes up. I've said it before and I'll say it again - Donald Trump is not winning over many people outside of his base. It's also true that when more people vote, they tend to vote Democrat - and we're seeing record highs for voting this year. Especially among young people, who are sort of the holy grail in politics. That is - they tend to be more liberal, and they have the numbers if they vote, but they rarely do and so their influence isn't really felt. That looks like it's changed this year.

Of course, a lot of it comes down to the actual political geography. That is, some states are reliably blue or red... not necessarily because the people in the state all vote that way, but because of gerrymandering or overwhelmingly large urban areas. That is - Illinois is reliably blue because Chicago has the bulk of our people, and they generally vote blue. The rest of Illinois is actually quite red, and many people downstate resent that their political wishes are always overpowered by Chicago. (I am not endorsing this view either way, just highlighting perspectives).

I haven't looked at the situation on that deep of a level, I generally trust the pollers and pundits to be aware of which states are swing states and which elections might lead to a flip in power for the House or Senate. 

It's entirely possible that the massive amount of voting won't be in the right places to make a difference, or not enough of one. 

Still - I'm disgusted with how much the Republican Party has enabled the situation, and I want them thoroughly and soundly rejected at all levels. Not because they're necessarily bad people, or directly did anything wrong...

But because they chose to call themselves that name, chose to be part of an organization that allowed this to happen. I want anyone who decided not to speak out because they were afraid of the political repercussions to learn that there are far worse repercussions when you don't. 

It's funny - we have had political earthquakes in the past. People who voted blue their entire lives because of FDR and the Great Depression. People who voted red because of the Civil Rights Movement...

The fallout from the pandemic might be very similar. 

Guess we'll just have to wait (a few more weeks) and see. 

Election and Disinformation Talk

https://standuprepublic.com/joe-biden-isnt-doom-scrolling-america-and-probably-you-shouldnt-either/

Doomscrolling

The other day I thought about doing a long post based on something else that came from my discord group (east vs west cultural differences, and how your actions reflect on your family... Which actually gets my back up a bit?). 

Anyways, like some ideas which I don't feel like dragging my laptop out to type, I haven't written it yet. And might even forget about it. (if you're curious... I'm typing this from my phone. I don't like using my work computer for personal use, for obvious reasons, and when I'm done wfh for the day my pets generally need attention. Which is hard to give if I pull out the laptop. The phone is easy enough for some things, but sometimes I need an actual keyboard.)

I heard a term the other day - doomscrolling - and immediately recognized that this is what I've been doing. (okay, I didn't get an actual definition, but it seems very obvious).

I feel like we're reaching some sort of, Idk... Tipping point? Point of inflection? Something is going to happen, I just don't really know when or what. It's kind of hard not to obsessively scroll through social media, and I have to deliberately make myself stop sometimes. 

What am I looking for? It's tough to say for sure. But...

Coronavirus cases are kicking up again. There's various metrics and things I don't want to bore people with, but the Dakotas are beginning to run out of ICU beds. Idaho seems to be getting bad, too. I still keep an eye on Florida (their numbers can't be trusted) and a couple of other states, nothing really notable to say that you can't see if you look at the data yourself. 

The other thing to keep an eye on is Trump's health, and the health of all those around him. Staff members, government officials, members of congress. 

I'm not sure what to make of his covid illness. Yet again, we know we can't trust what they say... But despite numerous people speculating on the internet, there doesn't seem to be much in the way of fact. It seems highly unlikely that he caught it and recovered within the time periods they admitted to, and that he's got his doctors in on supporting his lies is just more of the typical rot we've seen with this administration. ( the CDC, National Weather Service, Walter Reed... Science is science and not supposed to be policized. I have heard the term that the 'fish rots from the head', I just never expected it to happen so fast.) 

What's crazy to me is that apparently some of his supporters really need to see him as superhuman? And there was a quote about 'God-tier genetics' that... I don't even have words for how ridiculously stupid they sound. 

They're... serious?!? They say this with a straight face? They believe that crap? 

Regardless, I have absolutely no idea what really happened, but he's apparently okay enough to be on the campaign trail (and encourage yet more spreading of the virus, given that it's highly likely someone in the crowd is infectious. Is this more of that asinine eugenics thing? Are they trying to spread it far and wide?) I know we hear about long term effects (like clotting, and strokes, and other things) that make me think he's not completely out of the woods, but that's about it. 

I miss the days when our duly elected leaders felt they owed the public the truth. You know, -'we the people', the ones they're supposed to be serving. 

smh

I was just thinking this.

When I first heard someone say watching Biden's townhall was like watching Mr. Rogers, I thought it was a Biden supporter.

Like, Mr Rogers is awesome. There's a meme of the 'holy trinity of wholesomeness', with Mr Rogers, Bob Ross, and Steve Irwin. I could wish I were a fraction of the role model Mr Rogers was. He is a legend. There's a story of someone stealing from him (his car, I think? I don't remember), and he put out word that there'd be no repurcussion, he just wanted it back.

And whoever stole it returned it. Because who would want to be the thief who stole from Mr Rogers?

I was flabbergasted to realize that this was supposed to be an insult? It was said by someone on Trump's side?

How awful must these people be, to think comparing anyone to Mr. Rogers is an insult?

We have been blessed as a nation with some amazing, wholesome people who are actually as good as they're made out to be... And he's one of them. 

Command Climate

It's sort of telling me things I already know, but I thought it worth sharing here.

Mostly because, yet again, they find people work hard and are more motivated when their work has meaning and a sense of play (and purpose).

In other words, the attitude that people will only work if they are afraid - that they need economic incentives and should be word about keeping their job, etc - leads to poor performance.

In fact economic pressure (and emotional, and inertia) tends to hurt productivity.

That's part of why things like universal healthcare and social safety nets can help businesses. It gets rid of disincentives that cause poor performance (like staying because you can't afford to lose health benefits, or to take three months to find a new job).

And yet, over and over again, we see people create systems that destroy that sense of meaning and play and turns work into drudgery. And the worst part is they act like it's some clever or great business move. 

Commentary on the Democratic Establishment

While there are currently bigger issues that crowd out everything else, let's not forget that Democrats have their issues as well.

I'm not saying I support one side or the other here, so much as pointing out that when the establishment does stuff like this - https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1316821591163056131?s=19

Its no wonder voters grow disillusioned, and don't think they represent us any better than Republicans do. 

Powerful

https://myakkoh.tumblr.com/post/631440355865313280/heres-the-opposite-story-though-with-apologies

Abortion Opponents

https://vandrell.tumblr.com/post/631278153667592192/seandotpolitics-abortion-clinic-employee

Humanity, Leadership, and Other Musings

 I've been thinking about the contradiction between how amazing humanity is, and how awful. Like... they can create stuff like this, create things that are just mind-blowingly beautiful. Create amazing 30,000 word fanfiction, or professionally published works. Draw things that hang in a museum, or just get shared around on social media...

And at the same time, we can be so very, very stupid. Petty. Spiteful. Shallow. 

I am in love with our fascinating contradictions. How we can create stories about Stabby the Roomba. And at the same time, well. Just look at the mess we're living in right now.

I've been thinking a bit about that. Well, okay. Thinking about how the political powers tend to do idiotic things that ruin a lot, making things worse when it didn't have to be that way. (It's funny... conservatives are supposed to be all about believing that there's value in the past and trying to conserve it. Resistant to change, sure. But... Roe vs Wade happened before I was even born. To me, conserving the world I grew up includes preserving that ruling. And I'm not opposed to change, I just don't like change for change's sake. I want to respect the past, and not throw it out without actually thinking about what value it serves... but if throwing it out lets us live in a better now then we should throw it out without hesitation. Like... I talk about 'tools in the kit bag' and whatnot, and the point is that we can make use of whatever we have to in order to build a world where we all have life, liberty, and are able to pursue happiness. I don't like throwing out the past just because, not when it isn't well thought out and just encourages people to be more selfish and petty... but the current forces that label themselves aren't really conservative. They're not conserving.  They are trying to radically change things back to a past that either never existed, or was remarkably unfair to a lot of people that deserved better.)

Anyways. Something I've known about my own psychology for a while, as someone who was an officer in the Army and has held leadership positions... and is also the second child in a family of six.

I have never cared about being in charge just to be the one in charge. If there's someone in the group who seems to need to be in charge, well... as long as things are going well enough I won't fight them for it. And by 'well enough', I mean that it's not worth quibbling over stupid things. Like... I don't know. Colors. I have my preferences, but if there's no real need for an invitation to be blue or green or red and someone else has a firm opinion on the matter, that's fine.

But when I've lost confidence in their leadership, when I see them making decisions that harm people... bad decisions when it really matters, well. That's another thing entirely. 

There's more to it than that, of course. The military teaches discipline for a reason, and there are very real consequences to having internal division. Subversion, mutiny... those sorts of things can get people killed just as much as someone's poor decision-making.

It's just... you never really lose responsibility for your own actions, saying you were ordered to do something is not enough. And every so often you really have to think about the possible consequences, and what you're willing to live with. There's a reason we insist the military swear an oath to the Constitution, and not loyal to any one person. If you're given an order that's illegal and immoral, you have an obligation to disobey. We don't have blind obedience. Never have, and hopefully never will. Never should. 

We complain a lot about how few people vote in the United States. How so many people just tune politics out, and think both sides are the same. In many ways, a lot of the stuff that happens in DC trickles down in ways that we don't immediately connect to elections and politics. Most people just want to earn a decent wage, have food on the table, not feel stressed about whether a medical bill or car repair will make them lose their job or home, be able to get decent presents for the family at Christmas, and maybe get a nice vacation once in a while. 

Simple wishes. Sure, everyone wants to be filthy rich... but as long as basic needs are met most people don't want to 'join the rat race', or 'dirty their hands with politics'.

Which generally leaves the politicking to the ones that are okay with doing that. Many of which seem to do it because they want power, and don't show much in the way of wisdom at all. (Which just adds to the perception of slimy, dirty, evil politicians that no decent person would choose to be... thus keeping many decent people from even considering running for office.  Note that I'm saying 'many' and not 'all'. Everyone has a unique story of what drove them to do such a thing, some of whom were motivated for the best of reasons.)

This election looks like it's going to have a higher turnout than normal, partly because so many people are realizing that they can't afford to sit it out. That this time the differences really do matter. There is an ugly arrogance to the powers-that-be, who seem to think that they know best. Even as more and more people are struggling just to meet their basic needs. Even as millenials, who haven't been teenagers in a while, are drowning in student debt. 

Even as owning your own home increasingly seems like an impossible dream. Even as a major health problem can lead to bankruptcy and poor credit. Even as the middle class continues to shrink while the rich keep getting richer...

And as people who claim that they're doing what God wants have shown over and over again that they apparently don't understand the Bible they claim to revere. Who have decided that they know what's best, so much so that it's okay to undermine our rule of law, undermine our Constitution, undermine all the things that make America great... all because they lack faith.

They complain about how 'liberals have taken over', about college professors and Hollywood movies and political correctness. They think that they are losing, and that they stand for what God wants to have happen...

And here's the thing. If you believe in God, if you have faith, then you will keep doing the right thing... hoping and praying that God will find a way. You might die in the process, you might not see the results yourself, but you are trying to live a good life.

When you decide that, in order to win, you have to justify doing something wrong. That you have to lie, for example. Or that the rule of law doesn't really matter... the you lack faith that doing the right thing is enough. 

You don't think you will win if you play by the rules. Don't think you'll win if you're honest and upright. If you argue for what you think is right by saying what you truly believe. You think you have to pull the wool over people's eyes in order to get them to support you.

All of which is a way of saying that you don't believe.

You don't believe you can win any other way. You don't question why you're losing, don't question where you went wrong, don't question what it is that has made people turn away from you or disagree with your arguments. You've decided that you know what's best, and that it's up to you to make it happen.

I do actually have quite a bit of respect for the beliefs and traditions in our major religions. They speak to people for a reason. I know I talked earlier (with Confucianism) about why I care about certain things more, but they are fine traditions that do help a lot of people. (I just prefer having the choice of which ones I believe are worth following. I have no intention of abstaining from pork or beef, for example. But I can respect that people following traditions that demand that are getting value out of doing so. I just think it should be a conscious choice, not blindly following what everyone else is doing just because that's the way it's always been. I can give you some very clear and secular arguments for why killing is bad, stealing is bad, and lying is bad. Why showing respect for our intrinsic humanity is a good thing, though my forms of respect may not be the same as someone else's.)

Anyways. In the process of trying to force everyone to 'do the right thing', you show a patronizing disregard for other people that I think God finds even more offensive. The Koran says that there should be "no compulsion in religion". And yet people keep trying to find ways to force others to do what they consider right.

The terrorists trying to make women wear veils, using violence to dictate what music people listen to and what shows they watch... that's compulsion, and it does even more harm then letting people wear what they want and listen to whatever they choose.

It's no different no matter what beliefs you are trying to impose, whether it's sharia law or the ten commandments. 

Trying to subvert our democracy out of the arrogant belief that the vast majority of the American public is somehow wrong, led astray by 'evil' Democrats...

Justifying expedience in pursuit of that goal... it shows a tremendous lack of faith.