Sunday, July 23, 2023

Musings on the Psychology Behind Terrible Decisions

We recently had a couple of days with a noticable haze, and the smell of smoke. It came from the wildfires in Canada (reaching all the way to central Illinois).

Sure, I've heard humans started those fires... But fires don't catch like that unless the vegetation is dry. This is Canada for crying out loud... I have never seen wildfires in Canada spread smoke so far.

Throw in the heat waves, the insurance companies dropping customers in places like Florida, and it seems like we're really starting to feel the consequences that scientists have been predicting for a while now.

Which makes me think about how we got here. And about the organized efforts to prevent 7s from doing anything about it. (Like this).

It's pretty common for people to dismiss these things as 'greed', or corporations (and billionaires) being just plain evil...

And maybe it's true. I mean, we do have story after story of corporations suppressing information that can be life threatening. Radium girls, cigarette companies, Erin Brockovich - that's just a small fraction of the multitude of examples. If anyone wonders why 'evil corporations' are a constant trope, they haven't really been paying attention to what corporations have proven they're willing to do. If you add in less immediately lethal activity (like Volkswagen's emissions scandal) the list grows even longer. 

Is greed and evil really enough of an explanation though?

I mean sure, maybe some of the people involved are knowingly choosing to do wrong for short sighted gain or something, who knows?

But with my personal rules of thumb (most people don't want to think of themselves as evil, so they will have some sort of justification. Plus we tend to be biased when it benefits us, so people are more likely to find arguments credible when they allow them to continue making money.) I suspect there's more going on than simple greed.

More than just human bias, too. After all, some of those corporations clearly did have proof that they were trying to cover up. 

When I try to imagine what would lead me to make such morally bankrupt decisions, I think back to the times when I really, really, didn't want to believe something.

Like realizing I was the one who made a mistake. I think most people, like me, feel an instinctive fear when that happens. Sort of an 'oh shit, I screwed up... This could get me fired' fear. It doesn't even have to be a direct threat from your boss, most people think that if they screw up badly enough they will lose their job. (There was a thread on Twitter once where tech people talked about their biggest, most disastrous mistakes... And it's kind of reassuring to realize so many people - people who mostly seem competent and good - have stories like that. Helps dispel the myth that we all have to be perfect).

It's hard to set aside the ego, to not get defensive and immediately try to shuffle the blame or hide what you did and hope nobody figures it out.

Those are the moments that can define a person, a corporation, a country...

And when we talk about character, we're talking about people who demonstrate it even when your self interest is telling you to hide and cover up whatever it is.

I don't know that that makes any difference - we still have short sighted fools preventing us from addressing problems because it's not in their interest.

It's just their possible motivations change. 

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