I haven't posted much about Russia's invasion because there's too much speculation and not enough facts, though I do keep seeing indicators that lead me to believe this thread is probably true.
If Putin can't win the way he expected, I guess he'd rather use brute force and massive civilian casualties than accept defeat.
Just like numerous other foolish and incompetent wannabe rulers. (A good ruler doesn't need to terrorize everyone into submission).
Since I'm talking about Ukraine anyway...
I do think Russia has shown poor morale, leadership, discipline, etc (there's a couple of good threads discussing maintenance issues and what some of the broken down vehicles indicated for Russian maintenance programs), but I'm not sure that matters...
Thinking of the battle of Stalingrad, or another thread talking about Finland's experience...
And that militaries do tend to shed dead weight when they go to war...
There's just too many unknowns right now. Russia can and has won before despite all the factors I mentioned above, but then again the vehicle maintenance issues and the possibly deep levels of corruption behind it mean they might not actually have the systems required to fight a long and brutal battle.
Then again, nobody is in a position to stop Putin domestically, and he seems perfectly willing to throw as many Russians at Ukraine as it takes, so if they're willing to accept the cost (no matter how high) maybe they do.
And I don't even know about all the other things going on. Alluding to nukes, possible false flags and chemical weapons, planes... Will things escalate? How far?
MAD only works when both sides want to avoid that destruction. It's really hard to tell right now whether Putin has a line he won't cross, or would rather see that mutually assured destruction than take an 'L'.
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