Sunday, August 29, 2021
Russian Trolling
Friday, August 27, 2021
The Software Industry Gets Away With A Lot
Thursday, August 26, 2021
Mad
Tuesday, August 24, 2021
Shareholders and Economics
Monday, August 23, 2021
A Media Post
After writing about the media response to the current situation in Afghanistan, I felt I should go into a bit more detail.
It's just that I'm not sure where to start.
I feel like anything I write would mostly be based off my rules of thumb, guesses, assumptions, and observations... and rather short on fact.
Plus, well... I don't watch cable news. Ever. I haven't done so in years, maybe even a decade or more. It started because I hated being at the mercy of whatever story they wanted to tell (I did not need 24 hr coverage of Anna Nicole Smith, thank you very much), plus the way that they would fill up air time with pretty much nothing.
With online articles I could read whatever caught my interest, and follow up with new information when a new article came out.
As for online news... I do favor what I consider credible sources, but even there you still have to use your head to sort through the opinion, framing, and spin. And, well... the paywalls mean that I limit myself on some of the bigger names. (NYTimes, for example. There's only a limited number of free articles so I really have to be interested in the story to click. I suppose I could get a subscription, but I'd probably need multiple subscriptions - Washington Post, The Economist, etc - and that adds up. If we weren't dealing with the squeezing of the middle class and we all had a bit more spending money I suspect they'd see more subscriptions from people like me. That, btw, is also a classic example of why failing to pay workers in accordance with inflation means there's less people willing to spend money on things. In a consumer society you'd think they'd realize their hurting themselves, but alas the potential future economic growth isn't enough to make businesses pay their people more. We saw that with Henry Ford already.)
The other odd thing about the media is that we all have this idea of what it should be. i.e. fact-based reporting on important issues, willing to do in-depth investigations that speak truth to power and bring problems to light, etc. etc.
Except I know a little bit about history, and I'm aware that that's there's a lot of history where that didn't happen.
I suppose there's always been an element of information warfare there, and given the current mess with bots and trolls and people deliberately trying to manipulate the news it might be worth trying to read about more historical examples. If I can find a good book recommendation. (No promises on when I'd get to it though. I truly do have an ever expanding list of books that I want to read.)
So take this for what it's worth from someone who doesn't watch any sort of cable news, and only occasionally reads the news articles from major publications. (Which does beg the question of where and how, exactly, I learn anything. I'm not sure how to explain that though... I like using a news aggregator to get a sense of the big issues news junkies are talking about. Mostly the headlines. And if I'm interested in a topic I'll try to dig up multiple sources. Maybe read two or three articles or blog posts about it, see what people are saying on Facebook and Twitter, check out a fact-checking site... it just depends on the issue and sources available. I consider certain sources unreliable enough that I don't bother with them, though. I try to have a diverse feed, but tbh the conservative side has gotten so bad that it's hard to find counterbalancing opinions worth reading.)
So anyways. Media is biased. I don't think that's really debatable right now. The issue is 'how'?
Conservatives claim there's a liberal bias, liberals claim there's a conservative bias (see 'Hillary's e-mails'), and tbh I don't think it's quite so clearly one or the other.
It's more like... most mainstream media represents 'the establishment', however you want to define that. And some of the reporters do seem to have a liberal bias, but a lot of their editors and whatever-the-position-is-called within the organization seem to have a conservative one. Let's also not forget that Jeff Bezos owns the Washington Post. I do not know how much influence he exerts over that, and whether that means the Washington Post won't ever write anything critical of Amazon (though it seems rather likely.)
'The Establishment' is a handy term that isn't very well defined, kind of like the powers-that-be, but it doesn't necessarily mean there's some group of people chilling in a cigar smoke-filled room plotting how to divide potential opposition and support the status quo.
It's more like - the people who get into these positions tend to socialize with each other and gain a common understanding of the world around them. That shared view has biases and inaccuracies that they really don't question (like this idea that poor people are lazy and you need to keep them hungry in order to get them to work for you. Practically a recipe for terrible leadership, but good luck convincing the people who believe it to question it.)
So there does seem to be an element of groupthink, and I normally do follow the 'never attribute to malice what you can attribute to incompetence' rule of thumb... but that isn't quite enough to explain things.
After all, there's documented evidence of business owners using agencies like the Pinkertons to break up strikes. Just like there's documented evidence of the feds trying to disrupt the Civil Rights Movement.
Thus there really are people with money and power who use the tools at their disposal to tackle anything they consider a threat. (The long term negative consequences of that are not so clear to them, or they wouldn't keep doing it.)
It's hard to say for sure what all is going on today - information truly is a prized commodity, it seems. But I have heard of people hiring agencies to, as one example, push internet links they don't like to the bottom of search engine results.
And, ofc, there's all those nasty bots and trolls trying to manipulate public discourse.
There do seem to be some people who are capable of influencing the media (i.e. Hillary's team seemed to consistently have some sort of fluff piece saying good things about her immediately after any sort of negative reporting. Ofc, given that she lost in 2016 that doesn't necessarily mean such efforts can force the results they want. Any more than a bot army, or whatever we want to call that since I think some of those actually have real people paid to spread lies. It's important to address sources of misinformation, but we shouldn't give them more weight than they really have. Example - most of the posters that I suspect are paid to argueTrump took covid seriously are rather laughable. It's such a ridiculous rewriting of the last year and a half.)
So anyways. The thing about Afghanistan, and Biden, is there was an article I can't seem to find now, that basically said anybody who disagreed with the line they were pushing wasn't asked to give their opinions on the news. In other words, they weren't even trying to get 'both sides', or cover it in depth. They seemed to want to run with 'Biden has hopelessly screwed up in Afghanistan'.
Which, well... first of all foreign policy has almost never registered with the average American. I mean, I care... but I'm kind of weird like that. The perpetually online news junkies I tend to see on twitter care... veterans care...
But most Americans barely even remembered we had a presence there. Sure, it looks bad now and Biden's ratings took a hit, but I seriously doubt it's going to matter once the news cycle moves on.
I'm not sure how much of that illustrates the difference between the news junkies and 'establishment' types vs the average American. (What was that quote about Biden's speech? 95% of the establishment will hate it, 95% of Americans will appreciate it? Says something about the discrepancy.)
I am not sure why the mainstream media would be so determined to push that story line, though. It doesn't seem like the thing the 'liberal media' would do. (I did see someone speculate that they were thrilled to be able to criticize Biden for something, to try and show they weren't biased and were holding him accountable or something. Idk, it's the kind of thing where I can see some patterns but don't really know the underlying causes.)
There do seem to be some darker, more malicious forces at play... the consistent efforts to undermine trust in the vaccine, and covid prevention protocols, demonstrate that. I'm just not too sure who's behind it, and why. I can speculate about it plenty, but without facts it gets a little too close to conspiracy theory for comfort.
The thing is, I know and have seen the disinformation army at work. It exists. And that makes it easy to make assumptions about who is behind the coordinated effort we're seeing. That they are essentially getting people killed proves it's malicious. That some of their same arguments come out of the mouths of conservative politicians implies some coordination (one day I saw multiple accounts suddenly making the claim that covid was rising in Florida because Biden was secretly sending illegal immigrants there, and it was only a day or two later that DeSantis rather publicly made a milder version.)
So. Malicious disinformation, probably but not necessarily in coordination with conservative 'leaders' like DeSantis.
Seriously, we're under attack. It's just not a kinetic strike. (I can say that as a blogger with no consequence, but I would hope our national security team is thinking long and hard on how to address it. Hopefully without escalating it into a more physical confrontation.)
The attack on Biden's Afghanistan efforts seems... somewhat connected, but I'm not entirely sure. Especially since it's hard to believe the more credible news agencies would be on board with that.
It could just be something about the way their businesses make money. (I understand they want the stories people will click on, but I'm generally not the target audience for that. Otherwise we wouldn't consistently have wall-to-wall coverage on topics I couldn't care less about.)
I'm not really sure what I'm getting at with all this. There's far too much I don't know, and too much of the current milieu is hidden.
That's a large part of why I wish I could see the history books that will be written after a lot of whatever is going on has been declassified and open to historians.
Also
Afghanistan
Sunday, August 22, 2021
The Right Connections
Fictional Theologies
The Curse of Chalion has become one of my comfort reads. I don't really want to go into the why's and wherefore's, but I came across a passage I wanted to share here. So I suppose I have to give at least a little background.
Fantasy novels often worldbuild, and how they handle religion is a huge component for it. For the most part I don't really care about that... they're stories, and if sometimes a world has gods and goddesses that seem mostly to be just superpowered humans, well. That's what a lot of Greek and Roman mythology was. (and, in fact, quite a few stories use those gods and goddesses in particular. Like Percy Jackson.)
Others will have pseudo-Christianity, though some is more blatant than others. (You have to read the Silmarillion to discover Tolkien had a rather elaborate Genesis story, and that the names the elves mention are more like archangels and that Gandalf, in fact, is an angel himself.)
Some have actual Christianity, to various degrees. (Someone said the Harry Dresden books actually portray Christian theology rather well.)
I think portraying deities is one of the harder parts of writing a story. Have them interact too directly and you risk having too many 'Deus ex Machina' plot devices. It can be nice to have more direct contact then we see in real life, but you don't want to overdo it. The opposite extreme is also... well, it won't necessarily ruin the story. You can have them be distant and inaccessible and just come up with some of the philosophical and socio-cultural elements that may influence your world. But that's not really portraying a deity so much as worldbuilding.
So anyways, the Curse of Chalion is a fantasy world with five gods and goddesses, and does one of the better jobs of portraying them.
Actually, what I like is that the characters have these encounters... and they are generally left confused and uncertain, and yet somehow (as it's storytelling with a happy ending) figure it out.
Anyways, I think I want to share the passage (or maybe break it up and mix up the order and share two) and discuss it a bit before going further.
Umegat inverted his clay cup upon the cloth. "Men's will is free. The gods may not invade it, any more than I may pour wine into this cup through its bottom."
"No, don't waste the wine!" Cazaril protested, as Umegat reached for the jug. "I've seen it demonstrated before."
Umegat grinned, and desisted. "But have you really understood how powerless the gods are, when the lowest slave may exclude them from his heart? And if from his heart, then from the world as well, for the gods may not reach in except through living souls. If the gods could seize passage from anyone they wished, then men would be mere puppets. Only if they borrow or are given will from a willing creature, do they have a little channel through which to act. They can seep in through the minds of animals, sometimes, with effort. Plants... require much foresight. Or" --Umegat turned his cup upright again, and lifted the jug-- sometimes, a man may open himself to them, and let them pour through him into the world." He filled his cup. "A saint is not a virtuous soul, but an empty one. He - or she - freely gives the gift of their will to their god."
Obviously this is fictional theology, and shouldn't necessary have anything to do with the real world... but I really like the point it makes about free will. About how we can open a channel and allow God to work through us.
And I like that the people are are doing this are not somehow having God whisper in their ear, removing all uncertainty and doubt. It's more like upheaval and change, upsetting all their plots and plans. (There was some thing going around on twitter the other day about the Wiccan community trying to hex the Taliban, and really I think the bit in the Bible from Matthew 5:44 is more appropriate. "Love your enemies and pray for those who persecute you" not so much because you're so benevolent and saintly, but because if God comes and disrupts their life it's a blessing that acts a bit like a curse anyway. And ultimately for the better. Like yes... I shall pray for the people I sometimes call assholes here, and fools. Because if God reaches through to them they'll probably start hearing that blasted inner voice that starts making them question what the hell they're doing and why they're doing it. And if they listen and hear it they'll probably wind up having to leave their asshole ways behind. And really, that's far more disruptive... and ultimately better for everyone... than any hex.)
And yes, I know that's all sorts of mixed messages. "Let me curse them with my blessings"
That's sort of the dynamic captured by this book, and the other books and novellas in this particular setting.
Saturday, August 21, 2021
Various Ramblings
Someone commented on one of my facebook posts, and I realized yet again what a terrible medium most social media is for sharing ideas.
I mean, I still do. Sometimes. But if the fox and the hedgehog analogy is true, I am most definitely a fox. And it's hard to go into the nuances, details, and all the grey areas in a forum where people want a quick little meme and articles or videos that take 5 minutes or less.
I've come up with my own rules of thumb for what I post, and they're far too complicated to explain in detail. (Plus I used 'rules of thumb' because I'm making them up as I go along, and can't guarantee every post follows them.)
It has been hard, lately. I've been following covid the way I have for the last year... and it's getting ugly. But the vast majority of the public doesn't want to hear it.
Which I get. It's been over a year now and we're all tired of it. I am very glad that I visited my family shortly after getting vaccinated, and did a whole bunch of other things... because now it's time to tighten back up again. My county positivity rate, as just one example, hit 12% the other day. I don't think it rose above 8% the entire year prior, though don't quote me. And this is in a college town in Illinois, where many people actually have been masking and taking precautions.
I've seen some of the reports from hospitals in Florida. Texas. Alabama. And the pediatric wards. But opinions have grown entrenched, and the ones who most need to hear it... won't. (At least some of them are family.)
But I don't want to trod that well worn path right now.
What does bother me are the larger systemic forces. Some of whom I've referred to as 'bad faith actors'. I haven't formally been researching this sort of thing, so you'd have to refer to the various articles out there - they do exist - to get the facts and figures. But I have noticed things.
For example, I've been running a twitter search on Florida covid for almost a year now, and it's rather noticeable when one day multiple accounts will start pushing the exact. same. line.
To me, that tends to indicate some level of coordination. A determined push. And yes, many of them are common names with a string of random numbers (often a sign of a bot or troll account.)
I saw that happen right before DeSantis made his speech alleging that Florida's horrendous growth in covid cases was because of illegal immigrants.(I've also seen a number of such accounts trying to reframe the entire past year and a half, and make it sound like Trump was the one who took covid seriously.)
It would be laughable, if the anti-vax and anti-mask movement didn't offer concrete proof of how harmful it can be.
Which brings us back to one of the more common questions of the day. "What do we do when around a third of the population falls for deliberate misinformation campaigns?"
I am not looking forward to the next couple of months. Oh, perhaps we'll see a precipitous decline (like South Dakota in November). I've been trying to keep an eye out for that... Missouri has shown a little bit of a decline, but I would like to see it continue over the next week or two before I'll consider it a real trend. And vaccination rates are going up, which is promising.
But despite what's going on in the hospitals, people are reluctant to take precautions... and schools are just starting. (Some have been open a week or two already, and had to go remote almost as soon as they started. But here school started just Friday. At least, the high school my Little attends.)
There's a part of me that is deeply angry about all this. About the unnecessary losses. About the people who deliberately encouraged others not to get vaccinated, not to mask up, not to take precautions.
And more, that the system continues to overlook and ignore it. That there's a coordinated effort to convince people not to take the vaccine (and to take a stupid de-worming pill instead!) and it's getting people killed... and hardly anything is being done.
The forces behind this have proven to be nefarious. They're pretty much everything I've said indicates they shouldn't even come close to holding power, because they're willing to encourage mass death and suffering in order to get whatever the hell it is they're trying to do. "The ends justifies the means" is the way villains think, and that's pretty much the logic here.
I think part of what's so maddening is that it feels like they're getting away with it. Or worse, might actually succeed. I don't know exactly what I would do if that seemed likely, but I can assure you that it wouldn't be nothing.
I dislike black and white thinking on principle, and have to hold myself back from using the same sort of language these people are using... but they need to be defeated. Soundly. Thoroughly.
They're a threat to everything we hold dear. (Which is also why it's so maddening that so many people don't seem to see it.)
Perhaps I need to do a better job of communicating just how and why that is? I mean, it seems so blatantly obvious that it's hard to find the words. I'm more stunned others don't see it, tbh.
Then again, the same holds true for the shrinking of the middle class, climate change, and other things. Boggles my mind that 'Very Serious People' who are supposed to be able to see the big picture don't see the problem. Or have too many incentives for preserving the status quo.
Mood
It fits so well, and I really appreciate that the last verse ends with the sense that this feeling is just... not permanent.
But I know that I'm open
And I know that I'm free
And I'll always let hope in
Wherever I'll be
And if I go blind I'll still find my way
I guess I just felt like
Giving up today
Sometimes it be that way.
And that's fine, but we'll still find our way.
Fascinating Study On How New Ideas Spread
Tuesday, August 17, 2021
Sharing A Tweet
Friday, August 13, 2021
Afghanistan
Thursday, August 5, 2021
Obligations
“The stranger who resides with you shall be to you as one of your citizens; you shall love them as yourself, for you were strangers in the land of Egypt.” (Leviticus 19:34)
and
“You shall not wrong a stranger or oppress them, for you were strangers in the land of Egypt.” (Exodus 22:20)
All those verses later on in Torah about our obligation to care for the non-citizen speak of hager, the stranger. Because we too were gerim—strangers—in Egypt.
Again, it’s not subtle.
It’s as though the Torah is telling us:
"Sarah didn’t learn from her own experiences of exploitation—on the contrary, she then harmed another woman in almost the exact same way when she gained some power.
The mere fact of experiencing oppression is sometimes insufficient for providing the necessary empathy for others.
So, then, after the entire Israelite people endure profound oppression, we will have to spell out very clearly that harming others is unacceptable.
Just in case suffering does not open you to empathy, to understanding of your obligation to care for vulnerable people, to the importance of wielding power responsibly, it will be made very, very explicit.”
As a result, the Torah commands us at least thirty-six times—thirty-six! More than any commandment in the Torah--to love, care for, celebrate with, and treat-as-equals hager, the stranger/non-citizen who resides among us.
That's our job. To care for the vulnerable who came to us because home wasn't viable anymore."