I figured I ought to explain a little bit more about what I meant when I said we shouldn't be focused so much on New York numbers.
As before, most of these are coming from this site.
So here's the national graph, in logarithmic format, for the United States. I went with the 'new cases, averaged weekly' graph because it smooths out some of the daily fluctuations, so it's easier to see trends. I went with logarithmic for similar reasons.
Here's the same graph, but for New York alone:
The New York graph is very similar to the US graph, because New York currently makes up the bulk of our cases. Of course, New York is now trending lower whereas the national rate is... not.
For comparison purposes, I pulled up a graph for another state, in this case Arkansas.
As you can see, it's still trending up. Actually, it just made a rather big jump up. You can play with this site and look at the trends in various states, some of which are winding down. Others are plateauing. Still others are still going up.
I also want to note that these pretty graphs are only as good as the data behind them. Some states are testing more than others, so their results will be more accurate. It raises the question of what an outbreak would look like if the state isn't testing, and isn't acknowledging it.
I think... well. Many people are asymptomatic, so it's hard to say, but you would probably seen an increase in fevers. Then, prob, a few people that need hospitalization... but it could be tagged as 'pneumonia', or something other than COVID-19. If you could compare the typical death rates to current death rates, you might see discrepancies worth investigating, but I don't have access to that sort of data. I'd definitely be interested in seeing it though.
What I have found, though I'm not sure how useful it is, is the Kinsa Health Weather Map. It's apparently a company that makes digital thermometers, so they get data on when people use their thermometers and have a fever, and can compare current fever rates to past. Again, just because it's a fever doesn't mean it's COVID-19, but an unusual number of fevers at this time does sound like a potential indicator.
Illinois has generally been pretty good, other than Chicago, ofc. Though I've started to notice some yellow spots in places like Coles County:
Which is interesting, because all it really has is Mattoon, which is a town with fewer than 20K. In other words - mostly rural.
I've been keeping an eye on Florida of late, though I'm not sure whether there's anything of significance to note yet.
Here's a screenshot from the John Hopkins University map, showing a map of Florida by county of confirmed cases. Data should be from yesterday:
And here's the Kinsa heat map for the same:
I don't think Miami is any surprise here, though I'm not sure what to make of the grey area in the center. I can't say I know Florida that well. It's interesting to note the dark red county on the heat map (which is apparently Orlando? Idk, I thought the county just below it was Orlando County, but upon further investigation I was prob wrong.) It's not showing that badly in the official coronavirus statistics from John Hopkins.
As before, most of these are coming from this site.
So here's the national graph, in logarithmic format, for the United States. I went with the 'new cases, averaged weekly' graph because it smooths out some of the daily fluctuations, so it's easier to see trends. I went with logarithmic for similar reasons.
Here's the same graph, but for New York alone:
The New York graph is very similar to the US graph, because New York currently makes up the bulk of our cases. Of course, New York is now trending lower whereas the national rate is... not.
For comparison purposes, I pulled up a graph for another state, in this case Arkansas.
As you can see, it's still trending up. Actually, it just made a rather big jump up. You can play with this site and look at the trends in various states, some of which are winding down. Others are plateauing. Still others are still going up.
I also want to note that these pretty graphs are only as good as the data behind them. Some states are testing more than others, so their results will be more accurate. It raises the question of what an outbreak would look like if the state isn't testing, and isn't acknowledging it.
I think... well. Many people are asymptomatic, so it's hard to say, but you would probably seen an increase in fevers. Then, prob, a few people that need hospitalization... but it could be tagged as 'pneumonia', or something other than COVID-19. If you could compare the typical death rates to current death rates, you might see discrepancies worth investigating, but I don't have access to that sort of data. I'd definitely be interested in seeing it though.
What I have found, though I'm not sure how useful it is, is the Kinsa Health Weather Map. It's apparently a company that makes digital thermometers, so they get data on when people use their thermometers and have a fever, and can compare current fever rates to past. Again, just because it's a fever doesn't mean it's COVID-19, but an unusual number of fevers at this time does sound like a potential indicator.
Illinois has generally been pretty good, other than Chicago, ofc. Though I've started to notice some yellow spots in places like Coles County:
Which is interesting, because all it really has is Mattoon, which is a town with fewer than 20K. In other words - mostly rural.
I've been keeping an eye on Florida of late, though I'm not sure whether there's anything of significance to note yet.
Here's a screenshot from the John Hopkins University map, showing a map of Florida by county of confirmed cases. Data should be from yesterday:
And here's the Kinsa heat map for the same:
I don't think Miami is any surprise here, though I'm not sure what to make of the grey area in the center. I can't say I know Florida that well. It's interesting to note the dark red county on the heat map (which is apparently Orlando? Idk, I thought the county just below it was Orlando County, but upon further investigation I was prob wrong.) It's not showing that badly in the official coronavirus statistics from John Hopkins.
Does that mean it's facing a bad outbreak, but not testing/reporting? Who knows? The Kinsa heat map showed quite a bit of red in northern Florida for a while, and if I'm remembering it correctly I hadn't seen a corresponding rise in confirmed cases there until recently.
As usual - I'm not an epidemiologist, and there are a lot of unknowns here. Like I said before, I'm just writing my own perspective here.
I have questions, though, and I'd love to have someone look at these sorts of things. Maybe check out that county north of Orlando, for example, and find out if there's an unusual number of fevers for any reason other than COVID-19.
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