This article captures a lot of the reasons that I take professional predictions on China with a grain of salt:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/30-years-after-tiananmen-us-doesnt-get-china/591310/
It also serves as a handy reminder that humanity - our beliefs, values, culture, etc - have an impact on how effective policies are.
For example, Japan has buy in for healthcare laws that we don't.
People act like it should have been obvious that businesses would skirt around the intent of healthcare laws by doing things like reducing hours so employees don't qualify as full time (39 hours a week and you don't get healthcare because it's not full time), but truthfully?
It's only 'predictable' and 'inevitable' to us, because we know what the culture is like for our business class.
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