Wednesday, April 27, 2016

The Presidential Race Part I - Trump

I can't even begin to describe how disappointed I am in America.  I actually want to focus more on the Democratic primaries, but I figured I (like so many others) have to talk about Trump first.




Full disclosure - I've never been a fan of him.  Even when he was 'just' a wealthy celebrity, he seemed overblown and kind of ridiculous.  I also don't consider someone with four bankruptcies an example of good business acumen.  But whatever, clearly there are others who think differently.




As a celebrity, I was quite content to ignore his existence as much as possible. As a potential future president?!?  Not so much. There's one issue that captures in a nutshell why I'm concerned.




Let's start with a few facts.  The Berlin Wall was around 96 miles long and divided Berlin for 28 years.  In that time about 5,000 people successfully crossed the border despite the wall.  They crossed by "digging long tunnels under the Wall, waiting for favorable winds and taking a hot air balloon, sliding along aerial wires, flying ultralights and, in one instance, simply driving a sports car at full speed through the basic, initial fortifications. When a metal beam was placed at checkpoints to prevent this kind of defection, up to four people (two in the front seats and possibly two in the boot) drove under the bar in a sports car that had been modified to allow the roof and windscreen to come away when it made contact with the beam. They lay flat and kept driving forward. The East Germans then built zig-zagging roads at checkpoints. The sewer system predated the Wall, and some people escaped through the sewers, in a number of cases with assistance from the Unternehmen Reisebüro."(see Wikipedia article)



The Israeli West Bank barrier will be more than 272 miles long.  Israel also struggles to identify and prevent people from sneaking across the border.  Again, determined people will find a way - over, under or through.  There's a rather healthy debate about how effective this is, you can read up on it if you're interested.  Note as well, though, that the Israeli wall involves much more than just a wall.  You also have to have people patrolling along the wall in order to catch the various attempts to cross it.




Now, let's look at our own borders.  Note that I said "borders", plural.  I've lived near the Mexican border, and I heard from the border patrol there that they also get a number of illegal immigrants crossing through the Canadian border.  A wall only built on the Mexican side will probably just mean more people try crossing on the Canadian side.  If you truly believe a wall is necessary then you need to build it across both borders (and most likely you'll need to beef up the coast guard, as well).




So anyways.  Our border with Mexico is around 1,989 miles long.  That's over 20 times the size of the Berlin wall.  If and when the Israeli wall is complete, our Mexican border is still 7 times as long as that!




And Canada is far longer - 5,525 miles long!  That's twenty times as long as the Israeli/Palestinian wall, and 57 times the size of the Berlin wall.




So what does that mean?  Well, obviously if it's costing the Israelis over $2 billion to build a wall, it will cost us at least $14 billion to build the Mexican wall in a similar fashion (a lot depends on how much you're willing to spend to make it secure.  If you don't have enough security to prevent people from crossing over than you're wasting your money in the first place.) 


$14 billion, minimum, just for the Mexican side alone.  Add in the Canadian side and we're talking $54 billion.  Assuming similar costs, which is a big assumption as the terrain varies greatly.


I've driven somewhat close to the border, btw.  From Sierra Vista, AZ to San Diego, CA.  Or El Paso, TX.  And on one memorable occasion I've driven from Sierra Vista to Houston.  I can tell you from personal experience that it's a lot of empty desert.  A whole lot of nothing.


Which means that you also have to budget for regular stations, ones close enough to provide some sort of quick reaction force.  It will do you absolutely no good to have a sensor go off telling you that someone just tunneled under the wall or went over the wall or what-have-you if it takes two hours before someone checks it out.


Israel is small enough and well populated enough that it's probably not too hard to do so there...but how many people are you willing to pay to live along the 700+ miles between El Paso and Houston? 


The reason I bring this up is that I think ANY politician claiming they will build a wall between the US and Mexico to be disingenuous.  A wall on the border of Mexico, all by itself, will not stop illegal immigration.  It's almost a joke to say that it will, and if it's not going to be effective if it's a waste of money.  If you're serious about being effective, it would be a very expensive, resource intensive endeavor that will require more money than you'd think. 


Arguments to build a wall sound more like a way to make people feel like we're doing something.  Even if that something isn't particularly effective.  I think anyone arguing for such a wall is either feeding people what they want to hear or really doesn't know what they're talking about.







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