There is a widespread belief that a peacetime military begins to... decay.
I can't seem to find the exact phrase (too many false positives to my search), but I believe it was something about a military needing a war to shake off the rust, or trim the fat, or whatever aphorism you choose to use to indicate that a military force becomes less capable of fighting as intended.
I don't normally dwell on this, because even though it's true it doesn't really leave a lot of options.
The thought of starting a war just to trim the fat is abhorrent.
Even if you were callous enough to consider it, wars are risky things. Unless you follow Sun Tzu's advice and know the enemy and know yourself, it is entirely possible that the war will not go how you expect.
Sometimes a 'short, victorious war' is neither short nor victorious.
This 'rot', such as it is, seems to seep into more than just military forces. In the United States, veterans make up about 6% of the adult population.
6%
That is, 6 out of every 100 adult Americans has ever served in the armed forces. That includes some of the really old veterans (Vietnam, the few surviving WWII vets...) from back when military service was more common than it is today.
The divide between veterans and the average civilian also has an effect - some say rot - but again, the solutions are not easy.
Mandatory service? South Korea and Israel may be able to do so, but if we truly put every young American man (and perhaps women) in uniform we would seriously have to expand our boot camps and living spaces and all the rest. After all, that'd be some 30M+ people, and our armed forces are only around 3M. You're talking ten times the current forces, and they would all need to be fed and housed and trained.
And so we have a large civilian population that really doesn't understand what it means to serve. More than that, they also don't have the critical skills and experiences veterans learn - but I'll circle back to that.
Something I, and many of those I served with, took a strange sort of pride in. It's kind of a sign of success, after all... that people can waste their time worrying about stupid stuff.
(Yes, my scale of 'things to stress out about' is a bit distorted now.)
Anyways, I look at the nonsense Trump represents, and the people described in that book about Facebook, and the things I've commented on before - about how various political figures clearly didn't feel any social condemnation for some of the foolish things they are doing, and it begins to feel like that Hindu concept of the Kali Yuga might be true. A time of darkness and despair among humanity and across the entire Earth, when chaos, confusion, and hypocrisy reigns?
Sounds familiar.
But that concept just seems to feed cynicism and helplessness, so let's move on.
The core problem... well, I think there's a variety of factors involved.
Some of it is the sheer difficulty of teaching good judgement, but there's more to it than that.
There are all sorts of lessons I learned in the army. Often condensed into pithy aphorisms and metaphors, cheesy parables and short stories that capture our collective wisdom and experience.
And many of them seem to be at odds with the lessons our civilian leaders have learned.
For example - consider an enemy ambush on a convoy driving along a road.
First, I want to discuss some of the worst things that could happen, because they have a strong effect on why the military does the things they do.
In a situation like this, your forces are sitting in what we call 'the kill zone'. The enemy has set up all their forces to target yours in that kill zone, and they are firing on you at that moment.
The absolute worst thing you can do is nothing. By doing nothing, it's only a matter of time until the people shooting at you succeed, and you're dead.
That's why one military saying is that it's 'better to make a bad decision then no decision.'
Quite a lot of the military is geared towards helping you react quickly and correctly - which is also why we do so many drills and spend so much time training. If you train enough, then you will react and get out of the kill zone quickly. Often before you've even had time to panic or think about the dangers... your brain might freeze under the shock, but your training kicks in and you're already doing what you should.
The other thing you really don't want is for your people to start arguing over what course of action to take.
You are being shot at. This is not the time to argue that everyone should do X instead of Y.
Not without a compelling reason. And by compelling, I mean 'people will die.'
This is also why the military cares about things like 'good order and discipline'.
But... it's not like in the movies. It's not like soldiers turn off their brains and blindly follows orders.
It's more like - they understand that there are good reasons to maintain discipline, and you'd better have a damn good reason if you're going to disobey (and even if you do have such a reason you still might be disciplined, but if you think your reason is good enough then on your own conscience be it.)
I knew a warrant officer, back when I was in Iraq, who had served in Vietnam. He told me a story once - about an ambush, perhaps like the one I described above. Except the officer wasn't responding correctly, so he pushed the officer aside and got them out of the ambush.
He said he got disciplined, I think demoted a rank. But he also was privately told that he'd done the right thing.
Which makes perfect sense, because it discourages soldiers from deciding they know better and causing confusion under fire, while at the same time not truly punishing the solder. After all, he did eventually become a warrant officer.
There is a LOT more than that, but I don't want to digress too much.
The point is that when you're at the tip of the spear, the logic and calculations are different. You also learn a lot more about how people act and react under stress.
In civilian life - your boss may say or do something stupid, but you're afraid of losing your job so you generally just grin and bear it. And then maybe go home and vent to your spouse, or call up a friend or something.
In the military, when you're six months into a deployment and only halfway done... where alcohol is forbidden and you're spending your entire day around the same people, and there's smoke coming up from the latest IED or you're hearing mortar rounds daily...
People act different. (And I'm not even going into the experiences of those directly in a firefight. Go talk to someone in the infantry, or even a truck driver regularly out on military convoys). Stress can build up, because there's no casual weekend where you can unwind. People grate on each other with no release valve. Interpersonal issues can blow up to disastrous levels.
To lead people into battle, into situations where they know they might die - you have to have trust. They have to believe you know what you're doing. Or at least, know well enough that you won't get them stupidly killed. (And if you don't... well. There's plenty of stories of fragging. When shots are being fired and death is a real possibility, who's going to know if your own soldiers had a little something to do with it? Better not be too incompetent, because your life is also on the line.)
All of this seems to go against the lessons civilian leaders learn. At least, the ones I see leading our current world.
It feels like they all read that book on the 48 laws of power, except those 'laws' are more about a courtier's life than a general's.
And perhaps that's the real distinguisher.
Even in the army, it's known that things change the closer you get to the flagpole. i.e. headquarters for higher ranking individuals. That's where egos and jockeying for power start interfering with the calculus of 'accomplish the mission while keeping your people alive.'
The higher up the flagpole you go, the worse it can get.
Still, every single one of them has an understanding of how to execute a large and complex operation.
Like when we deployed into Iraq - I was part of the Reception, Staging, Onward Movement, and Integration (RSOI) process in Kuwait to prepare our forces for deploying our division.
Moving such a large military force requires a LOT of coordination. To prepare the equipment for shipping, to coordinate for the ships, to coordinate for the planes bringing everyone in, to coordinate for transportation from the airport to their temporary living quarters. To prepare for any additional training required. To make sure you had people prepared to unload the equipment off the ships when they arrived, return them to a working condition, and get them back to your area...
The list goes on and on. It's a large, complex operation with a lot of moving parts, and there's a lot of experience you gain when you're part of something like that. Heck, even the experience with smaller tasks (like running a weapons qualification range) teach you plenty.
Such as understanding the difference between a plan as it appears on paper, and a plan as you actually try to execute it.
Really feeling in your bones how Murphy will fuck with you any chance he gets, and why you should keep things as simple as possible. (In case you miss the reference, Murphy refers to Murphy's law and any overly complicated plan has more things that can go wrong, and therefore more points of failure for Murphy to mess with.)
How last minute changes can screw things up even worse, if you don't communicate them effectively.
The importance of a clear chain of command, clear direction, and clear lines of responsibility. Also clearly communicating the mission and the plan.
These all seem like things civilian society has just plain forgotten. Even the CEOs don't really seem to understand it any more, or maybe it's just the tech bros? Move fast and break things is fine when breaking things just means some people have to step away from the computer for a bit while the techies frantically try to fix it. It's very much less acceptable when it means half-assing your deployment into a combat zone.
I have especially been thinking about this because of some of the things Trump has been saying about Canada and Greenland.
I have absolutely no idea why he thinks pissing off one of our best allies is a good idea. Even if this has something to do with trying to gain control of the oil in the Arctic sea as the ice caps melt, I don't think alienating these countries is better than what we could have done with proper diplomacy. But that is yet another digression.
What I really wanted to focus on was how chaotic and haphazard his plan - if you can even call that - is.
You can't just take over another nation by declaring they're a 'Cherished 51st state', nor by bullying them with tariffs. At the end of the day, Trump is either full of bombastic hot air (possible) or he will have to actually try to invade Canada (which I also wouldn't put past him).
Doing so would be fraught with legal questions. I think he'd need Congress to make a declaration of war. Even though we've had presidents do some questionable military activity without one, I don't think that will work in this case. I also don't know if whoever in the military he tries ordering to do so will recognize it for the illegal and unconstitutional order it would be without one. I would like to say they would, but we've had so many guardrails fail already that I am not as confident as I would like to be.
That makes it more likely than not that he's just full of hot air, but who knows?
What I do know is that if he led a brigade or a battalion the way he's leading the United States, then it would be a serious disaster.
Clear plan? Clear goals?
Nope.
It's like he'd come out one day and say 'go take that hill', except that no clear battalion is assigned the mission, there's no clear coordination for the beans and bullets required, he also came out later that day and said that that they needed to take a different hill, and nobody knows if that means they don't need to take the original hill or not.
And if one battalion commander decides to obey his unclear command and succeeds, Trump would talk about how great a leader he himself is and maybe even praise that commander, but if they failed he'd immediately bad mouth the commander and pretend he never gave the order.
It's all chaos and confusion, there's no clear chain of command and no clear hierarchy, no real responsibility taken, just pressure to do whatever crazy thing Trump wants. With multiple examples of him immediately bad mouthing and dropping anyone who fails in the attempt.
Nobody really knows who is supposed to be doing what.
I have never been quite clear if he thinks he's clever and has some sort of actual plan, or if he's truly incompetent... but in some ways I think I'm grateful.
Because his leadership style is truly like a mafia boss. Given how law enforcement regularly monitors mafia bosses, they've all learned not to give a clear order or do anything that could get them in legal trouble - which makes sense for a criminal organization, but is a truly terrible policy when it comes to the military.
Anyways, Trump's 'leadership' during January 6 was like that. He never outright ordered his supporters to do anything illegal, but the ones who felt strongly enough to join him back then knew exactly what he was encouraging.
And they failed. I still don't think they had much of a chance of succeeding - even if they had disrupted the counting of the state's electoral votes, or had even managed to hang Pence. But they could have caused enough chaos and uncertainty that perhaps Trump could have held on to power.
Maybe.
I doubt it, given the states had already certified their election results and the January 6th counting was purely ceremonial, but again - the guardrails are more fragile than I used to think, so who knows?
The thing is, though... if Trump had led from the front? If he had clearly walked with his supporters to Congress?
Things might have been different. But he would also have had to clearly cross the line of legality, just like Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon.
Anyways, I am dismayed that so many people seem to think Trump is exhibiting good leadership, even more dismayed when my fellow veterans support him, because when you look past the chaos and bombastic language, he doesn't seem to be very good at - executing.
(If you're interested in more like this, I have a Venmo link.)