Addendum

Perhaps 'inciting civil war' is not correct. 

More like 'making any opposition sound like a threat so I can justify cracking down on them, and if they resist I can justify even more'

Which, oddly enough, has a high likelihood of starting a civil war.

Predictions

I should be focusing on my job hunt, yet I big red warning signs are blaring every time I check the news. So I figured I'd type some stuff out, try to get a better sense of what I think is going to happen.

I do not claim to be able to predict what Trump et al will come up with next, but I do think we can make some educated guesses.

First - as we saw in his first term, Trump has a tendency to say or attempt to do something wildly crazy. Then when (or if) he gets pushback, he flip flops. For some reason this seems to make it easier for him to get away with shit, because people learn to ignore all the outrageous stuff...

But the thing of it is, he only flip flops when he gets pushback. I am quite certain that if people went along with whatever crazy thing he suggested, that he would not tone himself down on his own. If anyone had actually listened to him when he tweeted 'stop the count' the night of the 2020 election, I doubt he would have said 'I'm just joking, finish counting the votes like you're supposed to'.

In other words - he pushes. He tests. He tries. He isn't holding himself back, isn't restrained, won't stop because something is illegal or 'not the way it's done'... he only stops when he faces too much resistance.

As a defender, btw, this is a notorious problem. In cybersecurity, in counterterrorism - you have to defend everywhere, whereas the attacker has the ability to pick and choose and put their efforts into wherever they detect a weak spot.

So anyways - Trump pushes. He prods. When he gets a reaction he flip flops and pulls the 'what, I wasn't going to do that!' bullshit.

But you can see the direction he's pushing us in. That was obvious even before Jan 6, because he took every opportunity to yell about how the election was stolen. It wasn't just something he complained about in private, he actively pushed the narrative.

Never provided proof for it, but that doesn't seem to bother his supporters.

Anyways. He actively pushed the narrative that the election was stolen, which frankly had predictable results - a large part of the population doubted the results of the election, doubted Biden was the legitimately elected president, and were open to suggestions to take action to 'fix' things.

It's a bit like when a mob boss orders a hit, or perhaps the better term is 'stochastic terrorism'. No incriminating command, no direct order... but he shapes the environment so that what he wants to happen is highly likely to. He praises those doing what he wants, condemns those that might get in the way, and his loyal followers pretty much know what he wants anyway.

So now let's look at where we're at today. Now, the strange thing about the US is that we have a long tradition of 'the citizen soldier', we have things like the Posse Comitatus Act, and if Trump truly tried to activate the military to perform some sort of tyrannical takeover he is highly likely to fail.

If he were obvious about it like that.

I'm pretty sure Jan 6 happened the way it did in part because he knew just ordering the military to step in would fail. (Though he sure has taken steps to replace anyone who would refuse, so with his current cronies in place who knows if that still holds true?)

So instead we have this stuff about activating the National Guard... which is weird, because they actually belong to their respective states. But there's the Insurrection Act of 1807, and so we're seeing a lot of Trump claiming he needs the National Guard to suppress civil disorder, and state governors' denying that, and then a lot of this has gotten tangled up in court. (DC is a separate case, because the District of Colombia isn't a state and their National Guard actually does report to the president.)

Oh, and this is also why ICE is important. It's basically the military he wants rather than the military he has, though because it was specifically created to deal with immigration he can't use it the way a military can. Instead he can use them to create a situation that justifies calling in the military. (And also why protesters are being very careful right now. Taking a stand while also refusing to incite further violence is a tricky place to be, though so far I think they're doing well.)

Right now this all just means that everything is a confusing mess. Trump is saying all sorts of shit (like usual), the National Guard may or may not be activated, it might end up a nothingburger where they clean parks or it might be the next stage in inciting a civil war... who knows?

We've all been given that Chinese curse to live in interesting times, because the times sure are interesting!

Oh, did I say something about 'inciting a civil war'? Right... going back to how he shapes the environment to get what he wants?

What do you think he's been doing today?

What's with all the rants about the 'Radical Left'. The way they just glomped onto the Charlie Kirk assassination to start talking about left wing violence - even as right wing violence continues unabated. Even escalated, we might say. If you doubt what I'm saying, check for how many of the people upset about Charlie Kirk's assassination speak out at all about the home of a judge who ruled against Trump burning down.

He is stoking the divide with every speech. Building up anger at blue states, the 'Radical Left', Democrats, all of it. He's threatening major cities, blaming any violence on the left...

He's not even subtle about it.

But... as I've mentioned before, there's a relationship between leader and led and people are not all mindless minions that blindly follow along.

Which is why I'm not sure about what happens next. Perhaps that escalating tension will continue to rise and we're headed for a violent and bloody civil war.

Perhaps governors will call up their National Guard, and Trump will use that to justify calling in the US Army.

Or perhaps someone will refuse to obey an (illegal?) order, and the attempt to incite further violence will get bogged down in the courts like so many other things.

Maybe Trump will be ousted under the 25th Amendment.

Maybe things will just remain awkward and strange but mostly the same (except for the immigrants and the detention camps) until we have another election and successfully get this kakistocracy out.

I don't know... what I do know is this.

He and his people will keep pushing, keep testing, keep probing and prodding, and the only way it will stop is if people remain firm and make them.

Yep

https://robertreich.substack.com/p/how-trump-gets-and-processes-information

He Said It Better

Some great commentary on the 'warrior ethos' fiasco earlier this week. 

https://claireberlinski.substack.com/p/the-wisdom-of-secdef-douchenozzle

Drowning

I hate job hunting.

I hate the doubt that creeps in. The worry.

Not just the stress of 'will I find a job before my money runs out?' but the fear of failure - and worse, that it'll be my own fault.

That I'm not as good as I think I am. That other people are out there tracking down recruiters and creating GitHub repos and mastering the GCIH cert and polishing up their resumes with AI and getting calls and interviews and everything...

And that I'm failing, not because I'm not capable, but because somehow I really struggle with creating that AI ready resume. And I do kind of enjoy coding, but I just... don't really code just to code. I need a project, an idea. And generally not just 'here's my take on the exact same thing that's been coded by people much more experienced and capable than I am'. Like, I'd want it to be something useful that I couldn't just use someone else's code for.

Why spend all that time doing something that's been done already? Multiple times even? Why re-invent the wheel?

But then the projects that do interest me look like they'd mean going down a rabbit hole that... I'm not really sure I have the resources to go down. By which I mean I need something that will pay the bills, which also means hunting for that thing that will pay the bills, and if the project is going to eat up too much of my time then it either has to have a good return on investment or it risks making it even harder to pay the bills.

If I didn't have to worry about the necessities of life, then all those calculations would change. But I do, and I know how I get when I'm hyperfocused on coding something, and I don't think I can really afford that right now. (Except, ironically, that could be the thing that draws attention and gets me a job... so maybe I should?)

In case it's not obvious by now, I am illustrating just how hard it is to decide where to allocate my time and efforts.

On top of which...

On top of which, every time I see the news or scroll through social media and see posts about current events, I can't help wondering if I'm focusing on the wrong thing entirely.

Trump and all the fools enabling him are probably the biggest issue right now, and I don't really like ignoring it.

Except what can I do, really? What can I do - that will also lead to my being able to pay the bills?

Maybe I should head up to Chicago for some of the ICE protests. Except... I've also seen people from the area discouraging that? Like, on the one hand we want enough protestors to make it clear things are not okay. But on the other hand we don't really want to help create the justification for Trump to escalate things even more.

I don't know. It's also pretty far from here, and would also take time that isn't being used to, you know, job hunt.

I have been thinking about that especially hard lately, because I've had a few interesting engagements on social media with the conservative uncle I've mentioned before.

I am - not sure how much he truly wants to hear things. I know we all have a tendency to close our minds, to hear each other only so that we can prepare arguments to refute them rather than an open mind trying to understand. I sometimes think it's counterproductive to try to explain when someone doesn't want to hear it, so I may post all about something here but will try not to bore you in person (if we ever met.)

But if someone genuinely asks? Or just asks, perhaps not so genuinely? Things will never change if I fail to take that opportunity.

Anyways, he had asked for our 'belief origin story', and although I have plenty of other beliefs I stuck with the Jan 6th spiel because I genuinely think it's the most pressing issue in our democracy today.

It took a while to get a response, but when he did respond he mentioned that he didn't think my beliefs had only settled by then, and that I must have had earlier experiences.

Which was completely true, though even the things I chose to respond to that post with are only a fraction of them. I mean, my beliefs have been shaped by what... three decades now? More than that if I count younger experiences, but let's start with college. 

My experiences doing ROTC at a midwestern liberal arts school while studying political science, then joining the Army. Deploying to Iraq, getting out. Going back. Coming home and staying local while Mom battled cancer, studying public affairs. Not finding a damn job with that at all. Going to Afghanistan. Leaving all the military and military adjacent stuff and going completely into the private sector as a shipping supervisor. Shipping. Deciding it wasn't for me and going back to school for Computer Science. Stumbling into DevOps. And now... searching for my entry role into cybersecurity.

All of it has shaped my beliefs. Most of it involved quite a bit more research and studying than just listening to whoever is on the news, or seeing memes on social media.

But most of it is too long and boring to tell people who don't really care. So I post it here and engage when someone seems genuinely interested, and so I gave some long responses that were still just a fraction of an answer.

He has not responded yet, so who knows how he's taking it. But - there is a part of me that feels like that sort of engagement could be even more important than the job hunt.

I mean... it can't be, right? I need to pay the goddamn bills. And it's not like I have the reach to engage with enough people to genuinely make a difference, right?

But anything that helps burst this bubble of support for the current situation is a good thing. I can be like that little rock that forces the carriage to jump out of its ruts.

I don't see how I could do that and make a living though. I blog enough about it all here and I'm well aware that it's all probably tl;dr for this day and age. 

No cutesie videos or engaging podcast either. You're stuck reading my ramblings with whatever the hell I want to ramble on about, and it's definitely not popular enough to make a difference in our escalating political divisions.

But just feeling that impetus to do something makes me wonder if I shouldn't restrict my job hunt to just the cybersecurity roles I'm looking for.

Maybe try to get some use out of that Public Administration degree. But... nah. I didn't have any luck back then, why would it change now?

sigh

I really have no idea what I'm doing anymore.

Dynamics Between Leader and Led

When you see an advertisement for a car, do you immediately run out and buy it?

I'm pretty sure the answer is 'no' for most of us. Advertising obviously does have an impact - perhaps we just remember the branding, and when we do decide to get a new car we look for that brand specifically. Or maybe the ad reminds us that we want a new car, but we don't want that specific car and we look for something else.

The point is that we're not mindless recipients. Advertising doesn't automatically make us buy the product being sold...

And the same is true for political arguments.

There's a lot of finger pointing and a lot of people asking us how we got where we are today, and while we can point to cynical manipulators and misinformation and disinformation campaigns, those explanations have always felt a little off to me.

Because we don't buy the car in the advertisement when we're not in the market for one.

That's why I look to my conservative friends and family. That's why I ask myself - why do they think the way they do?

And it's been quite the struggle. I get that we have differences in opinion on all sorts of things. Healthcare. Taxes. The role of government.

But the very foundation of our system, the defining feature of our Constitution, is that we resolve those differences at the ballot box.

Don't like what the current government is doing? Vote for the other side in the next election. Like what they're doing? Keep voting for them.

All of this depends on letting elections determine who is in charge.

That's why Jan 6 is so important to me.

Or rather, not Jan 6 specifically so much as everything that led up to it. The insinuations and accusations that were never, ever, backed up by evidence (though Trump's supporters sure believed they were!).

Trump's 'car advertisement', in this case, was that the election was stolen and that he was the real winner.

And his supporters were in the market for the product he was selling.

It boggles my mind. The very foundation on which our government rests, and he attacked it over and over and over again...

And everyone just sort of shrugged and looked the other way.

Even worse, now we've got the gullible fools that believed Trump's lies getting rewarded for behavior that undermined our own government.

Which.... wasn't actually what I intended to write today. Yet another rant about Jan 6? Everyone who sees the problem already knows. 

Everyone who doesn't see the problem... well, that's the question, isn't it?

Why do my conservative friends keep focusing on graffiti on the sidewalk when our entire house is on fire?

Why don't they even notice the smoke? The heat? 

How can they post about things that, relatively speaking, are barely a problem compared to the giant, raging, fire?

Once you see what Trump's been doing, it becomes pretty obvious. Not just his constant claims about the election.

Now you see him go on and on about the 'radical left', all his rhetoric is meant to divide us. To villainize anyone who disagrees with him. To dehumanize them.

There's no room for centrists or independents in his political worldview. If you don't agree with him, you're the 'radical left'.

And God forbid you criticize Christianity (even though many so-called Christians don't seem to have read their own Bible), nor criticize capitalism (even though the current failings are a large part of why he was elected in the first place), nor show hostility towards those who hold 'traditional' views on family, religion, or morality...

I guess those views are too fragile to deal with any dissent or disagreement.

He threatens to send troops to our cities, sticks his nose in things that shouldn't even be his business, and participates in a wasteful in person talk to military personnel where he talks about domestic enemies...

But conservatives aren't saying a word about any of that. 

Just... ugh. 

Warrior Ethos

On Tuesday, Secretary Hegseth has called an in person meeting of senior military leaders, supposedly to talk about the 'warrior ethos'. 

This is unusual for a couple of reasons - first, modern technology makes it easy for people to remotely attend a function like this. If all it is going to be is a speech, there is absolutely no reason why anyone should have to be there in person.

Second, the logistics and security risks are unusual. The military will have to fly everyone there, plus pay for food and hotels. 

Meanwhile, they are unable to do their normal duties... And given this is ALL the senior leadership, it raises questions about who is going to be handling everything back at their duty stations. (Plus it's creating a really nice target of powerful people gathered in one place, though it'd obviously be an act of war if anyone actually acted on that.)

It is definitely strange, and I would question anyone who is trying to deny or downplay that.

There's a lot of speculation about what's really going on, though it could be anything from an actual speech as promised (despite the utter waste of giving it in person like this) to some announcement about future activity, like a declaration of war or something (which shouldn't be the case, but when has this administration ever cared about laws and norms).

What seems most likely,to me at least,is something historians have already brought up - a loyalty test of some sort. Maybe even an attempt to get these senior leaders to swear an oath - not to the Constitution, which we all already did when we joined the service. 

But perhaps to Trump directly. In which case I hope and pray that they unanimously refuse.

The Constitution is more important than any single political figure, and our current oaths should be enough. Asking for anything in addition to that should be a large, red, neon warning sign blaring a siren call. 

No president loyal to America would ask for such a thing.

Whether this administration is actually going to try that or not? I guess we'll find out on Tuesday.